Why our civilization is fragile, Part 4

Every so often in history events occur that have wide-scale consequences. These high-impact events are game changers, as explained by the “Black Swan Theory.” John Robb in, The Increasing Frequency of Black Swans, discusses both the increase and implications for modern civilization:

Black Swans (Nassim Taleb) are extreme events that have system wide consequences (9/11, the Internet, financial collapse, etc.). These events typically occur infrequently enough to escape near/mid term analytical methods (as in, most of our analysis is over time horizons that don’t measure the occurrence or probability of these events)…

…His and my second claim, and one that is harder to prove, is that there are reasons to believe that changes to the underlying global system have made these events much more likely (most worrisome, more prone to negative black swans).

A systems approach, often discussed on this blog and by Taleb, argues that a combination of hyper-efficiency (JIT supply, financial flows, and tight coupling of all sorts), extreme leverage (high debt), and excessive complexity (derivatives, interlocked supply chains) have introduced dynamic instability into the global economic system. That instability, if it isn’t constantly corrected by an intelligent control system (if it is even possible to build one on a global scale), can lead to catastrophic failure…

…Another way to is to analyze the stability of our global system is to look at it as a network. “Cascades of Failure and Extinction in Evolving Complex Systems” 2006, by Paul Ormerod and Rich Colbaugh is a good attempt at doing this. They used autonomous agents with heterogenous measures of fitness (diversity of goals/needs) to model an evolving network (similar to our economy or global trading/financial system). Unsurprisingly, they found as they scaled the connectivity of the network it became more fit. Simply, it allowed each of the agents in the system to better meet their goals for fitness (health, wealth, etc.). They also found that the network was also able to shrug off more small shocks than ever before (robustness increased).

However, this general improvement in fitness and resistance to minor shocks came at a cost. The more highly connected the network became, the more prone it was to catastrophic failures/extinction events (fragility increased). Worse, this relationship appears to be non-linear, in that with each increase in connectivity there is a accelerating increase in chance of catastrophic failure.

Read the rest here.

Book Review – One Second After

In One Second After, William R. Forstchen describes the effect of an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the U.S. EMP affects modern electronic devices but not older electronics using tubes. For this story, three thermo-nuclear devices were detonated over the continental U.S. (others were detonated over Europe and Asia), that destroyed practically all modern electronics – including communications networks and the capacity for all modern vehicles to operate due to the onboard computers they use (though older vehicles will be immune).

I strongly recommend this book as a compliment to Patriots by James W. Rawles. I read this book right after reading Patriots. Since Patriots was a page turner that kept me up late, I thought One Second After could probably be taken at a slower pace. I was wrong, it was just as, if not more, gripping.

If you understand just how vulnerable the U.S. really is, this book should be very, very sobering. The immediate effects are easy enough to imagine – no lighting, no AC, no electric heating, no transportation, no communications, etc. – as are the consequences if for only a few hours or days. But, as One Second After demonstrates, after more than a few days society begins to unravel. Not true for some rural locales, but for most urban areas.

The example in this book is a small North Carolina town just off the exit of a busy interstate. An early example of how bad things likely would be is the nursing home where the main character’s father-in-law was resident. As hours turned into days, most of the staff stopped coming as they either were unable to get there due to no transportation, or had to focus on the needs of their children and family. The lack of care combined with no refrigeration soon turned the nursing home into a fetid hell hole, for those still living.

The daughter of the main character was a type 1 diabetic. Her plight, and that of those who require medications to live, is also apparent. However, with proper preparation it need not be a death sentence.

The next issue was what to do with the people stranded there – those far from home and with no way to get there due to no transportation. Very soon after this the primary problem became glaringly apparent; food.

Most American cities have a supply of food for about three days, if the internet can be trusted. Due to “just in time” delivery, more expensive warehousing has dramatically decreased in the past decade, meaning less and less supplies are located in and near population centers. This is good for prices and if everything in the entire chain continues to be delivered on time (crude for processing into fuel, fuel deliveries, parts for transport vehicles from domestic and foreign producers, communications to tie it all together, etc.), but when enough of these elements fair partially or completely, the entire system of systems is very vulnerable to collapse. An EMP attack would exploit that well-known and hard to defend against weakness. And no one disputes that the U.S. has enemies that would do it if they could (more on this later).

The food problem becomes the main issue of the book, and it closely related to the defense of the town from marauding bands of refugees/criminals. Defense is the other pillar of this story; if you can’t defend yourself and your territory, your chances of survival are dramatically reduced. Even though this town was not overcome with bandits, the “win” still saw only about 10 percent survive the first year, which is when the relief effort began to materialize.

Less densely populated areas with more land for planting and hunting would obviously do much better under such circumstances. This is an excellent argument for those living in urban areas to move ASAP, or be prepared to evacuate if such an event occurs. IMO, one would be better off leaving large cities even if they had no retreat to go to, though chances for survival would still be low. Even though with a place waiting for them would have to get there. Only those already well situated in rural areas would be best prepared for a TEOTWAWKI scenario.

More on EMP. A known method for defeating EMPs is the Faraday cage, which is a metal (mesh or solid) box or cage that protect the devices within. There is even debate on this, however, as to whether or not the Faraday cage needs to be grounded or not (my recommendation, so far, is to ground the box or cage).

One Second After describes the EMP attack as destroying all modern electronics. However, the actual effects are largely unknown and to what extent off-the-grid items would be destroyed is debated. I recommend both putting important electronic in Faraday cages as well as reading up on what is actually vulnerable. Some article recommend grounding, some say it is not needed. Having worked in the electronic communications industry in the past, I’d go with grounding.

It is important to be clear on one point; whether or not the effects of an EMP attack on electronic devices are exaggerated or not is largely irrelevant – the consequences for the collapse of our society would still likely be the same since it very likely would take down the networks needed for modern life in the U.S. We would have the benefit of power, communications, and transportation for a bit longer, but when supply chains disintegrate, so does the rest.

Book Review – Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse

Patriots is a very good TEOTWAWKI manual, in novel format. The author, James Wesley Rawles of Survival Blog strings together many of the potential scenarios that could occur in the aftermath of civilization’s collapse, and demonstrates how those situations might be dealt with. The what and the why are well explained. While some of the situations are not probable, they are possible, and I think the extremes are used to illustrate what to do “just in case.”

The theme of Patriots is financial collapse that set off a chain of events overwhelming our high-tech but extremely fragile civilization. The cause could just as easily have been a limited nuclear war, a plague (natural or man-made), or any of the other TEOTWAWKI scenarios that leave some alive. What matters is what to do if any of those occur.

I consider this book to be essential reading, even considering some of the improbable scenarios. Read this for the information, not the story, or you’ll be disappointed with the dialogue and the lack of character development.

After reading the first five chapters of Patriots over two days – but before reading the sixth – I felt extremely unprepared, relative to the main characters in the book. I’ve always had somewhat of a survivalist mindset and considered myself somewhat squared away, at least with preparations for comfortable sheltering in-place during a minor or short-term catastrophe. But the amount of time, money, research, and detailed planning carried out by the main characters of the book was truly daunting. I wasn’t sure where to get started.

Along came chapter six, “Lawyers, Guns, and Money,” which I suspect chapter was added specifically to allay the fears of those who’d just read the preceding chapters and felt it would be futile to even attempt to prepare.

The brothers who are the main characters of chapter six and seven, do not interact with the characters in the other chapters, and are not mentioned again. Their utility is that they demonstrate how even the completely broke can devise and execute a plan for being prepared. I won’t elaborate further than to say that if they could do it, anyone can – if they are willing to spend the time doing so. That’s the good news of chapters six and seven.

The slightly disturbing news is that, if it offers a window on the authors beliefs, is that some of those beliefs are on the true fringe. For example, the long explanation of why one does not need a drivers license to drive, or a federal firearms license (FFL) to sell guns as a dealer. The same tone as those who say the federal government has no basis for collecting income tax – if you don’t believe their convoluted explanation of laws, you’re an incredibly gullible and ignorant fool.

Some of the things Patriots covers in detail are;

• Selecting group members, firearms, vehicles, and retreats
• Storing/preparing food and access to water
• Training for conflict and defending the home
• Trade and barter
• Dealing with bandits and tyranny

Much more than that, but if you’re reading this you’ll probably of the mindset to read to read the book.

Having said all that, I do have a few additional criticisms.

First and foremost, none of the main characters had children, at least at the outset of the storyline. For all but two of this group, the plan was to get out of Dodge (G.O.O.D) and evacuate to the retreat in Idaho. That is a much easier when not encumbered with young children, as most of us are from our late 20s/early 30s on.

Second, all the spouses/significant others in the book were completely on-board with survivalist preps and the time/financial considerations that takes. That’s realistic if one is of that mindset early enough to limit potential mates to those of like mind, but my hunch is that in the real world many spouses will not go along so easily (actually I speak from experience here, on both criticisms, but that’s for another post – maybe).

If those issues had been addressed with some of the main characters, IMO, the book would have been more complete. Those of us with these issues need to be aware of the additional planning required.

The third criticism – setting the bar too high, especially financially – was partially allayed by chapters six and seven, but not completely. The main characters must have poured tens of thousands of dollars a year into getting ready, which for most people is completely unrealistic.

Fourth is guns. There seems to be a focus on .308 and .45, and a disdain for weapons in 5.56 or 9mm – the AK-47, SKS, and Mosin Nagant barely got any mention whatsoever. Considering how much cheaper those proven firearms are and how much cheaper their ammunition is, I think that’s a grave oversight. Or perhaps it’s not an oversight and the author believes those calibers are inferior, which I would have to absolutely disagree with.

Lastly, legality. Some of the things the characters do, even before the collapse, are illegal. After the collapse it doesn’t matter, but these days it does.

Those that read this book and accept that our globalized civilization is in reality extremely fragile – or already understood that but see some of the potential consequences in Patriots – are likely to be on the path to making some life-changing decisions. If you live in an urban area you may consider moving, or at an absolute minimum making detailed evacuation plans (that’s where I’m at) to a safe place (luckily we do have a place to go).

At just over $10, the author is not out to make money but provide a public service.

The Dulles Expo Center gun show

Today I went to the gunshow in Chantilly, Virginia, at the Dulles Expo Center. It runs Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but I live nearby so went today. The gunshow was a bit disappointing due to price gouging, but I did find what I was looking for.

I walked pretty much the entire building and didn’t see an AR-15 (.223/5.56) under about $799. Many very simple configurations were $1,000 or more. I call that price gouging since I know M4 configured ARs are being sold online for $600 and $669 – with FFL and shipping fees call it $650-$750. Kits can be had in that price range as well.

If someone with an FFL put together similar ARs and priced them at $750-850, there would be a LONG line, I’m sure. And the competition would cause other vendors to reduce prices.

At any rate, the doors opened at 1500 and there was already a line around the building. By 1600 there were lines at the tables with the best deals on ammo, though ammo is still unreasonably high.* Compared to current prices online, some deals were to be had due to the lack of taxes and shipping. I picked up:

• 1000 rounds of 9mm Luger for $250 (brass casings, lead core, ammo can included)
• 500 rounds of .223/5.56 for $180 (brass casings, lead core, ammo can included)
• 1725 rounds of .22 cal for $80

Also picked up some spare magazines for my 9mm and .22 pistols, two AR mags for the rifle I plan to buy, and a few other odds-n-ends. I’d liked to have spent more time (and money) there, but after three hours, it was time to go.

*I understand that the fear of what Obama and a democrat majority in congress might do has been causing prices to rise ever since the election, but it’s irrational. First, Obama is focused on other matters. Second, in the early 90s gun control legislation by democrats gave congress to the republicans in 1994. But if you want to target practice – and have a supply for SHTF scenarios – you have to pay to play.