Thinking Through Bug Out Bags (BoB)

Because my family lives in the DC metro area and would need to bug out in a true SHTF scenario, I take my Bug out Vehicle (BoV) and Bug out Bag (BoB) preps very seriously – in fact I probably obsess over them. We would leave in one of our 4WD vehicles, loaded to the gills, with food, water, fuel, and other needed supplies. If we had to abandon that vehicle and could travel in another – then and only then would the BoB come into play. I’d be a desperate situation.

My BoB [see current full inventory] is for four people since I will carry most items for my family. Everyone’s situation is different so each BoB should probably be custom – think about where you are, where you’d need to go, and what you would need to get there. Consider the most likely obstacles and the gear you’d require. I know I don’t have everything I need in my BoB, and probably won’t; I may need to dump a few things as well. The load also changes from season to season.

Currently my BoB is a U.S. military surplus CFP-90 Main Pack with Patrol Pack, purchased on eBay for about $150 with shipping included. I selected the CFP-90 specifically because of the need to carry for myself and three others, and the pack has a one of the largest size and weight capacities available – upwards of 90 pounds, but I don’t want to carry that much and couldn’t move well if I did. When choosing what goes into the bag, I get concerned with ounces, not pounds. (BTW, two emergency foods I keep in it are peanut butter and canned corned beef – great calories to weight ratio).

The CFP-90 would be a good choice even for one person, since it can always be packed light, has extra room if needed, and is adjustable. As the photo shows, there are two main compartments and three outside ones. The Patrol Pack, not pictured, can be carried as a small backpack or attached to the top of the Main Pack. Another good choice is the U.S. military surplus MOLLE II Standard Pack, which can currently be had for $50 plus shipping. I purchased one of these and find it to be a bit more comfortable than the CFP-90, but with a bit less capacity. As a BoB for one person, it’s a bargain. But any pack that is able to carry what you need and is comfortable over long periods is fine for a BoB.

I’m very aware of the need to add several items to my own pack (especially clothes for my wife and two young children, backups of important files/photos on DVD, maps, sunscreen, etc.), though some of those items are readily available and may be added right before the BoB goes into the BoV. Some things are also overkill (e.g. 900 yards of fishing line) and will eventually be corrected. The inventory is tweaked fairly often, correcting these issues.

One area where I spent a lot of time planning and putting together was the medical kit, focusing on the problems most likely to be encountered and that could cause the most grief. Taking care of even small wounds would very important, and many post-apocalyptic fiction books describe a small cut becoming a raging infection. A simple cold could prevent sleep and rest and endanger everyone. Possible poor sanitary conditions and unrefrigerated food could cause diarrhea and dehydration. Moleskin for blister prevention, Off to prevent insect bites, and so on.

Again, a BoB is generally something that needs to be customized to your specific circumstances.

Trees Planted

A couple of months ago I wrote about our plan to plant trees at my parents farm in Nebraska, for both screening and fruit. Recently we completed the more difficult part of that plan by putting in 100 Green Giant Thujas for screening from the road. The Green Giants grow fast, and are appropriate for the climate and soil. They are also similar to a local native cedar so as not to attract too much attention by themselves, but we do plant on adding additional screening trees later. We didn’t have time to plant any fruit trees this time, perhaps in the fall or next spring…

We planted 100 trees at 4 feet apart, for a row 400 feet long. A bulldozer was used to remove some old dead trees and other debris, and a tractor with a box blade that has rippers was used to tear up the top soil (10-15 passes). The small (peat pot size) trees were planted, mulch was put down, electric fence put up (to keep out cattle and maybe deer), and soaker hoses put down for watering. It took two full days and just under $500 for all the supplies and materials used.

Investing in Silver Coins

Previously I wrote that I don’t believe precious metals (PM) will be worth much after TEOTWAWKI, but that they can serve as a hedge against inflation prior to that. I also recommended that a good foundation in defensive equipment (i.e. firearms and ammunition) and having ample food storage should come first. That’s all still my opinion.

For those ready to invest in PM, I think U.S. silver coins are a good place to start, both because silver is less expensive than gold, and because American coins are more easily recognizable (considering my small audience is primarily U.S., of course).

Along those lines there are two primary choices; pre-1965 coins and American Silver Eagles. The Silver Eagles are 99.93% silver, while U.S. coins (dollars, half dollars, quarters, and dimes) minted prior to 1965 are 90% silver and 10% copper. The coins I suggest are termed “junk silver” since they have no value to collectors beyond the value of silver content. Each Silver Eagle contains an ounce of silver, while each $1 face value of junk silver contains about 0.7735 troy ounces of silver (usually rounded to 0.715 due to wear).

Shopping around you’ll find there are a lot of choices. Sometimes it’s also a good idea to buy “bulk” silver, usually a roll or bag of coins at a slight discount. I’ve found the Silver Coin Melt Value Calculation tool at Coinflation very useful.

The best deals I’ve found: Franklin half-dollars for $7.59 at collectons.com. That’s currently $0.65 above the price of silver for one, or $1.30 for a face value $1 worth, while most Morgan and Peace silver dollars go for about $4 above their current silver value of $14.83. I’ve recently purchased many Franklins from collectons.com, and the coins are mostly in very good condition – much better than the Walking Liberty halves graded the same.

I’ve done a lot of searching, and that remains the best deal for now. If you buy over $150 in a purchase, shipping is free, something to consider if you find a nice price on a coin but have to pay tax or shipping.

The Potential for Racial Violence in America

Besides the record deficient both parties of our federal government are responsible for, ignoring the need to enforce immigration regulations and enacting immigration reform is creating a dangerous rift in society. Even assuming we continue at the same standard of living there will be serious trouble down the road, but taking into consideration the likely unavoidable drastic reduction in standard of living – or even total collapse – this issue is even more alarming.

This is perhaps best illustrated by Arizona’s recent immigration law that aims to, “identify, prosecute and deport illegal immigrants.” To be clear, the law is anti-illegal immigrant, not anti-immigrant as some may claim. Many on the left tend to intentionally blur this important distinction. Some have stated Arizona’s new law is unconstitutional because, “States have no power to pass immigration laws.” But others note that argument fails due to the fact that the law, “reinforces existing federal immigration laws and creates no new immigration crimes.”

There has been a backlash against Arizona from some, including the City of Los Angeles, but the root of the issue is generally ignored. Luckily there are a few voices of reason out there, including George Will and David Broder. Mr. Will notes:

Arizona’s law makes what is already a federal offense — being in the country illegally — a state offense. Some critics seem not to understand Arizona’s right to assert concurrent jurisdiction.

Mr. Broder cuts to the chase:

The law is every bit as bad as others have said — but it is hardly a surprise. What has been missing from the discussion is any apparent recognition of those responsible for killing the last effort at comprehensive federal immigration reform that would have headed off the need for this kind of punitive state action.

Federal indifference to enforcing existing immigration law may in-part have helped foster the apparent feeling of entitlement to some illegal immigrants, and fostered a culture of victimhood among legal immigrants that is counter to integration into American culture. Some schools in Arizona have apparently enforced this notion.

Though I do not observe it where I live, there seems to be a sort of Mexican nationalism in the West that political correctness forces some to accept. When a few high school students recently wore t-shirts with American flags on them to school during the Mexican holiday Cinco de Mayo, they were told to change the clothes or go home by school administrators. How dare they wear American flags on a Mexican holiday?

It seems obvious the students wearing American flag t-shirts were trying to be somewhat provocative. The question that needs to be asked is why did they feel they needed to do so, and why did at least some of the schools administrators feel the students would be at risk for doing so? It’s just as clear that the students had the right to wear the shirts.

Roger Ebert had to weight in on this subject, saying, “Kids who wear American Flag t-shirts on 5 May should have to share a lunchroom table with those who wear a hammer and sickle [sic] on 4 July.” This is an illogical analogy because This is America and July 4th is an American holiday, while Cinco de Mayo is a foreign holiday and the sickle and hammer is a foreign symbol. He later wrote, “Cinco de Mayo’s purpose is to celebrate Mexican-American culture in the United States,” which is just factually incorrect – it has nothing to do with “Mexican-American culture,” but is a memorial to the Mexican military’s victory over French forces during the Battle of Puebla, 5 May 1862. Yet ignorant and comments and illogical comparisons like Ebert’s will no doubt gain traction in some communities.

To me there is a very clear distinction between legal and illegal immigration. There is no gray area. And no one can claim I’m anti-immigrant; I have very close family members who are first generation immigrants, as well as friends and trusted colleagues. I support legal immigration and oppose those who attempt to bypass the laws my friends and family have followed, period.

As the slow decline we’re in worsens, and in the event of a total collapse, this ethnic/racial divide has the potential to get very ugly, as those on both sides settle scores for past injustices, both real and perceived. There is no easy solution to this for the survivalist or prepper – just know your area and be ready for this sort of violence on top of the accompanying chaos.

Book Review – Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects

The book Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects (2008), by Dmitry Orlov was a bitter disappointment. There was a hint of this in a 2006 article by Orlov, but several observations (slides 9-16 & 18) are useful in explaining why the former Soviet Union didn’t have a total collapse when it’s economy evaporated. I also should have been tipped off a second time by all the five-star ratings at Amazon that seemed to be cheering for an American collapse – mainly from the types that despise industrial civilization. It turns out the one and two-star ratings were more accurate.

Having first heard of the book at Survival Blog, and reading the paper mentioned above, I assumed the book would focus the two main issues identified in the title, “The Soviet Example” and “American Prospects” in the context of collapse Instead, about the first third of the book is a revisionist attempt to explain how the Soviet Union didn’t really lose the Cold War and how the U.S. never won it, replete with moral equivalency and other trite leftist fluff.

The information in this book that is genuinely useful could probably be condensed from the 160 pages of text down to paper of 20 pages less. I’ll distill that a good bit further with this brief synopsis. There are several key differences between the U.S. and the pre-collapse Soviet systems that as an accident of history prevented a total societal collapse and chaos when their economy collapsed;

Housing
• Soviet: Owned by the state, free rent, accessible by public transportation, stay during collapse
• U.S.: Mortgages owned by banks, foreclosures/evictions, private vehicles needed

Transportation

• Soviet: Public, continues to run, already in-place in populated areas
• U.S.: Private cars/trucks, requires fuel distribution

Families

• Soviet: Three generations under one roof, clustered geographically, used to hardship
• U.S.: Nuclear families, spread out, entitlement

Employment

• Soviet: Mostly public, salaries delayed, access to large stockpiles, people still show up a work
• U.S.: Mostly private, shutdowns, layoffs, just-in-time inventory / shortages

Currency

• Soviet: Token value, shared among friends, not essential
• U.S.: Essential for survival, loaned not shared, critical

Food

• Soviet: Kitchen gardens, public food stockpiles, home cooking
• U.S.: Supermarkets, shipped by truck (no warehousing), fast food culture

Energy

• Soviet: Vast oil and gas supplies, exports, government owned
• U.S.: Oil imports

Soviet backwardness and disregard for personal freedoms make it more resilient to its economic collapse.

The rest of the book, not so useful. Orlov notes in the introduction that he is not an expert or scholar (vii) , then in chapter one states he anticipates, “some Americans will react rather badly to having their country compared to the USSR.” (pg. 1) Having thus introduced a mechanism to deflect criticisms of sloppy scholarship and complaints of unfairness from Americans, he goes on to commit those very transgressions en masse.

I will present only a few representative examples here – the book is chalk full of them, however. Many falsehoods contain a grain of truth and these are no different;

• Orlov claims that the Soviet collapse was not because of communist ideology, or because of anything America did. (vii) In reality, the collapse came after years of military build up – in direct reaction to decades of U.S. military build up, especially in reaction to Reagan – and citizens’ discontent at their standard of living, largely caused by the problems of communist ideology.
• He claims that the U.S., “is a country that enjoys bombing other countries,” but that Soviets, having been bombed in WWII, “think twice” about “inflicting that experience on others.” (pg. 36) Unless they happen to be Chechen, or course.
• According to Orlov, the U.S. military could not defeat North Korea or the North Vietnamese. (pg. 37) In the first case, North Korea, the claim is entirely false; the U.S. and allied forces defeated the North Korean military quickly – this is a fact. Then China threw millions of troops into the fray, and the Soviets also directly assisted the North Koreans. The U.S. wary of nuclear war with Russia, did not press and settled for a ceasefire. The decision to leave Vietnam – to lose – was a political one, not based on U.S. military capability, which was clearly restrained. In both cases the possibility of nuclear war with the Soviet Union was a real concern.
• Illogically, Orlov insists in linking the U.S. invasion of Iraq to the need to extract that country’s oil, and, again, speaks of a U.S. “military failure.” (pg. 41) The key here is that a military failure or victory is not the same as anti-insurgency or nation building. The U.S. military victory in Iraq was complete and stunning, and took only 21 days (and BTW defeated a lot of Soviet equipment). Orlov is wrong on the military count due to an apples-to-oranges comparison. And Iraqi oil? Obviously the U.S. did not invade to take that.
• He faults the U.S. for jailing such a large percentage of the population, and notes it far surpasses anything the Soviets did, while mentioning the gulags and political prisoners incidentally. Context is everything. I agree the U.S. jails too many people, but hey have had a fair trial in the vast majority of cases, unlike Russian counterparts. More importantly, no one is disappeared in the middle of the night for political reasons, and most importantly U.S. prisons are not concentration camps (Gulags were) where millions died due to conditions. See moral equivalence.
• Orlov sees hypocrisy in the U.S. calling for the Berlin Wall to come down, yet erecting a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. (pg. 47) I don’t pretend to understand how an educated person can honestly make such an unmatched comparison. The Berlin Wall was akin to a prison wall, keeping oppressed people in. The wall (several fences in different locations, actually) on the U.S.-Mexico border is to keep illegal immigrants and drug dealers out of the U.S.
• Dredging up the tired old example of Bush’s “mission accomplished” speech, Orlov (pg. 49), like many on the left, takes the banner on the USS Abraham Lincoln out of the actual context;
  

  The banner stating “Mission Accomplished” was a focal point of controversy and criticism. Navy Commander and Pentagon spokesman Conrad Chun said the banner referred specifically to the aircraft carrier’s 10-month deployment (which was the longest deployment of a carrier since the Vietnam War) and not the war itself, saying “It truly did signify a mission accomplished for the crew.”

• Orlov states as a matter of fact that most coal reserves, “have already been excavated and burned.” (pg. 104) This is the theory of one Dave Rutledge, chair of Caltech’s engineering and applied sciences division, who’s estimates on this are presented as accepted fact by Orlov.

I could go on and on, but there is no point. The observations on why Russia did not fall into anarchy are useful – the rest of the book is not. Opinions, half-truths, and outright factual inaccuracies are presented as fact, meaning much of the analysis cannot be trusted.

In my opinion, the author simply does not understand the United States or American culture, and remains in the Soviet mindset. I have to wonder why Orlov stays in a country he so clearly loathes, and guess he will return to Russia when the pace of America’s slow collapse picks up. Good riddance.