Secondary, Tertiary Consequences of a Gun Ban

An all-out Feinstein gun ban probably isn’t on the way soon (a string of shootings could change that), but its remains the goal of the Dems long-term. They will use the press to wage a propaganda war to alter public opinion enough to avoid a repeat of the 1996 elections. In the mean time, “The Democrats cannot be trusted with our freedoms, and they will politicize every tragedy to accomplish their ends.”

If a gun ban were put in place that greatly restricted some of the most popular semi-automatic rifles and pistols available today, there would be other affects down the road depending on the details. Here we’ll assume a ban on all new semi-autos, normal capacity magazine, or the transfers of those.

Markets: Drying up the civilian market would obviously cause a lot of current producers to fold their doors, especially the smaller outfits. Unless they could make the change to bolt guns (bound to become better sellers), or get and keep military and police contracts. Then the firearms available to the public would cost more since the volume would be lower (eventually, not counting the current buying frenzy).

Regulations: Paying for all the checks, record keeping, registries, etc. also has costs involved and guess who will pay them; gun owners. If it is anything close to the hoops one has to go through to own a firearm in DC, you’re talking a couple days (or more) of in-person filings at various offices, and hundreds of dollars of fees, on top of the cost of probably mandatory firearms training.

Overall effect: Shrink the market; make legally owning firearms prohibitively expensive for most Americans. Key work there is legally – the bad guys won’t be paying any of those fees, and won’t be limited to whatever the nanny-state allows.

Some Republicans may roll over: See info from the Doc Thompson Show.

Nutnfancy explains a Second Amendment issue: Many for gun control think those who favor owning firearms as a check on the government are delusional since modern militaries are so powerful. Nutn explains that semi-auto rifles can get one a crew-served weapon, etc.

Sturmgewehre goes into detail on the magazine ban: Mac also include a link to contact your elected representatives to tell them you do not want them to vote for more gun regulations.

At Guns.com, see a Marine’s letter to Feinstein, and Ted Nugent’s letter to Biden.

BOYCOTT: Dick’s Sporting Goods for rolling on it’s customers, and Cheaper Than Dirt for attempting to profiteer.

Those Damn Government Workers

As the economy has declined over the past several years we’ve all become more aware of federal spending issues, and it has become fashionable to bash those lazy, can’t-be-fired, overpaid government employees. A study by the Heritage Foundation in 2010 and another by the Congressional Budget Office in 2012 both found that federal employees are paid more than those in the private sector.

Guess what: I’m a government civilian employee, a fed. Yes, one of the snakes out to crush the life out of you.

Don’t worry, I’m not a secret socialist, this is not to disagree with the fact that some feds as a whole are paid more, and you’ll never hear me calling for more government, just the opposite. The federal government is getting smaller now and much deeper cuts will come. This is to add some context that media summaries of the larger reports don’t stress enough.

I decided to work for the government because I wanted to be in a certain field where you pretty much must be either a fed, government contractor, or military, and I’ve been all of those things at one point or another. As a side note, before I was evil I was stupid. Back when I came into the federal workforce and the economy was good, many people felt those taking government jobs, or even going into the military with a commission, were idiots, a lot more could be made in the private sector. Times change.

This is longwinded but has a point. From a survivalist’s vantage, if you think collapse is immanent you may not care much what goes on with the government as long as it doesn’t affect you directly before that happens. Fair enough. I tend to see us as being in a slow collapse right now that could trigger a fast one unexpectedly and must eventually if nothing changes, but it could also drag on for many years or even decades. Though I think it unlikely, we as a country and civilization could somehow not collapse with enough dumb luck (our politicians sure aren’t going to fix what’s wrong).

If this slow collapse we’re in does take a long time to wind down to TEOTWAWKI, how and where we cut the government does actually matter. In part how we can defend ourselves, but also how the rest of the world deals with us – especially in trade – is due in no small part to our military power. The Department of Defense is 35% of the federal civilian workforce. Unfocused budged can easily hurting our national defense.

This could affect our access to energy, other imports, policies on exports, etc. that would in turn influence inflation/deflation, what goods we have, and of course jobs. Maintaining some global influence will be important as long as we’re in this slow collapse.

In the larger scheme of things, we could cut defense out of the budget entirely and in a few years mandated increases in Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, and interest on the national debt would eat up that savings – and we’d not have a defense/military.

I’m not saying that because I’m in defense and trying to save my job. Being on the inside I can say yes we need to cut a lot but we’d better be damned careful where we do cut. We do have a lot of deadwood. There are people that are not productive, there are departments or divisions or offices that are redundant or of no real use. On the other side of that, we need to cut carefully and there are some dedicated folks who give it 110%.

Some of this anti-fed sentiment seemed to have fueled part of the rationale for a government shutdown in late 2011. The shutdown is an examples of something that sounds like a good idea but isn’t, unintended consequences. Yeah, let’s stick it to those government employees; give them a taste of furlough!

The problem is that government shutdowns end up costing the government more, even if federal employees aren’t paid for the time they’re off. I’m not saying this because I’m a fed, I’m saying this because it is in reality a lose-lose situation and I don’t want my tax dollars pissed away any more than the next guy.

Getting back to those reports and the public opinions they help drive. The studies control for years of experience, location, etc. One problem with this is that many of those in defense actually have occupations are not in the civilian workforce, but are comprised of highly educated employees. Many have security clearances and other specialized skills that just don’t translate that well.

That is the case with where I work, there is no good private sector comparison. We all have at least a four-year degree (most have advanced degrees), clearances, perhaps another language, and specialized experience and training. Where I work even the janitors have security clearances and get higher pay for it.

In this time of slow collapse the government is finally starting to downsize. Right now it’s mostly through attrition. Eventually it will be through axing entire departments, if we get that far if and before a fast/total collapse.

What can any of us do about it? Besides voting for candidates that we think will cut the budget with some thought and research, not a whole lot. But this doesn’t mean you’re helpless, you can add this to your list of indications and warnings that help you gauge where we’re at. Understanding they “why” can help you determine the “what” to do about it best for you. Sometimes that’s all we can do.

The cuts are coming for all of government and tougher times for everyone, but how it happens will probably matter. If we’re going to go down anyway, I’d rather not have the U.S. end up being China’s or even Russia’s bitch before it does.

And next time the anti-fed bashing begins, remember it’s not as black and white as some say. There are sometimes unintended consequences. Some feds are on your side.

U.S. Credit Rating Downgraded for First Time

Today the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) became the fist credit agency to downgrade America’s AAA credit rating to AA+.

Standard & Poor’s announced Friday night that it has downgraded the United States credit rating for the first time, dealing a huge symbolic blow to the world’s economic superpower in what was a sharply worded critique of the American political system.

Lowering the nation’s rating one-notch below AAA, the credit rating company said “political brinkmanship” in the debate over the debt had made the U.S. government’s ability to manage its finances “less stable, less effective and less predictable.”

This probably should have happened years ago, realistically. The credit agencies likely have had good reasons for delaying this, and I imagine there was some livley debate at the S&P before this decision was made. Jim Rawles of Survival Blog earlier this week (check the link for possible consequences) predicted other credit agencies would immediately follow any downgrades. However it they will delay;

Other credit rating agencies — Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings — have decided not to downgrade the United States credit rating. But they’ve warned that, if the economy deteriorates significantly or the government does not take additional steps to tame the debt, they could move to downgrade too.

Some of the possible consequences (more)?

U.S. Treasury securities, once undisputedly the safest investment in the world, are now rated lower than bonds issued by countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France or Canada.

The move is likely to raise borrowing costs eventually for the American government, companies and consumers.

Seems clear we’re on the downward slope with no realistic hope for actual recovery. There may be upticks, but nothing that has a chance to halt the slow collapse we’re in. As the son of Arsenius so aptly put it recently, we’re “circling the drain.”

From Each According to His Ability, To Each According to His Need

Students are asked about redistributing grade point averages (GPA), from the upper 10% to those who may not graduate unless their GPAs are raised. A typical response, “that’s not fair, I worked hard for that.” Same students asked if they favor redistributing wealth, looks like all in the video did. Many tried to deflect this obvious hypocrisy by saying the analogy isn’t good, that it’s an apples to oranges comparison. But is it?

One argument, for example, was that grades are a more accurate measure of performance than income. I say; maybe, maybe not, and so what? Income is a combination of performance and life choices. Natural ability and luck are certainly factors, but probably less so than 1) not making stupid choices and 2) working hard. That’s just the way it is.

The Atlantic picked up on this and offered some of the reasons/excuses some argued, as examples and not the position of the author. I think they all fall flat and agree with the conclusion:

They suggest that most of us just want to redistribute income because, well, we wanna . . . not because we have any particularly good reason.

Class warfare is what we’re up against when it comes to creating a sane federal budget, and the sort of hypocritical and illogical approach by the students in the video above is one reason why I have little hope there will be a solution in time to prevent a collapse.

Other Retreat Considerations

It’s probably been beaten to death, but population is the first thing I consider when contemplating the need to bug out. I’m on the east coast and it would not be pretty in a collapse scenario. Here are some stats, and a nice map of why that show some population bulges in places you might not expect;

One thing I have not heard discussed much about retreats is flooring. Carpet is great, but with no electricity my guess is carpet will quickly become filthy. For a retreat I suggest hardwood or tile, or linoleum if the first two options are too expensive. Laminate floors can’t handle moisture well so I suggest against them in any case. If you must have carpet, have good wood or tile underneath.

If you build your retreat or do any remodeling, might want to cluster water pipes centrally. For example, have the kitchen on one side of a wall and the main bathroom on the other side. Don’t put water lines in remote parts of the building if you don’t have to; someday you may be able to heat only a portion of the structure and don’t want those lines freezing.

Mainstream Media on U.S. Financial Mess

Most survivalists/preppers have been keenly aware of the potential consequences for America’s uncontrolled spending spree over the past several decades, and that’s in fact a main reason to prepare for collapse for some of us. But mainstream media (MSM) didn’t often carry related stories or focus on the likely consequences, it was more the fringe media. MSM still largely stays away from alarmist stories, but as the debate in congress over deficit spending has picked up, so has coverage of the dire financial straits the U.S. is really in.

For example; US Going Same Route as Greece, Portugal: Economist from CNBC, U.S. Fiscal Meltdown in Spitting Distance: Laurence Kotlikoff from Bloomberg, and US lacks credibility on debt, says IMF from the Financial Times. Granted you’re not likely to see articles like 5 Things That Will Happen To You When America Goes Bankrupt from Townhall, but coverage is increasing awareness among the non-survivalist masses.

Why our civilization is fragile, Part 6

This post won’t follow the format of preceding posts on our civilization’s fragility in that it doesn’t present an academic work related to collapse. Instead it looks at how world events can begin overlap and affect multiple systems. Some events we’re all aware of:

• The overthrow of Egyptian dictator – and U.S. ally – Mubarak and the new government that will eventually take power calls into question the last few decades of peace between Arab nations and Israel. Any large-scale war in the Middle East is a very bad thing for the rest of the (oil consuming) world.
• The related Libyan uprising against the rule of Muammar Gaddafi has caused fuel prices in the U.S. and elsewhere to skyrocket, threatening the already fragile financial recovery. What’s surprising about this is the relatively small amount of oil Libya supplied (about 2%), especially for the U.S. market:
  

  [Libya] normally pumps around 1.6 million bpd, 85 percent of which is exported to Europe. Output is normally equivalent to about 2 percent of global consumption, and unrest has cut output to about 500,000 million bpd…

• The earthquake and tsunami in Japan have caused a generations crisis there that has endangered the financial solvency of Japan and sent shock waves into the global financial market:
  

  The global financial turmoil sparked by Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis — which has wiped out about $300 billion in U.S. stock values alone this week — is particularly troubling for the United States and several other countries, where an economic recovery has been showing signs of derailing because political unrest in Libya and the Middle East has led to a sharp run-up in crude oil prices.

• Though not in the news lately, the European debt crisis is still there looming around the corner, waiting to come back.

As political upheaval and natural disasters disrupt energy and other supply lines, the effects are felt throughout other systems and across the world. The nuclear plants probably melting down in Japan may slow plans for new nuclear power plants in the U.S. As nuclear power is the only energy source that has any realistic potential for replacing fossil fuels in the long-run, this only makes an American collapse more likely.

The world is getting closer to the edge. Additional natural disasters, political upheaval, or conflicts in critical locations could be enough to push civilization as we know it over the edge. I won’t say “the end is near” because the end is always near. Times like these we can get a glimpse of how close it is.

Who Will Rescue America After Collapse?

Survival fiction often depicts other countries either coming to the aid of the U.S. after a collapse of some type, or coming to loot. Examples:

• One Second After (EMP scenario) – U.S. forces stationed abroad when the EMP occurred, with the help of European allies, begin helping U.S. east coast areas about a year after the event. Chinese forces take part of the U.S. west coast, Mexico takes some of the Southwest.
• Patriots (financial collapse) – The several European countries under UN auspices move in to pacify and take over America within a few years of collapse.

I’m not sure those scenarios are realistic but it’s extremely difficult to determine what would happen to the rest of world in the event of a complete U.S. collapse. There are both financial and security issues that make predictions fairly useless, in my opinion.

Financially, most of the world is tied to the U.S. through trade, aid, reserves, or all of the above. The image below is focused on U.S.-China trade but also depicts some of the global trade ties that would be disrupted should America collapse (click on image for full-size):

The breakdown of foreign trade is thought to have been a factor in the 1930s:

Many economists have argued that the sharp decline in international trade after 1930 helped to worsen the depression, especially for countries significantly dependent on foreign trade. Most historians and economists partly blame the American Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (enacted June 17, 1930) for worsening the depression by seriously reducing international trade and causing retaliatory tariffs in other countries. While foreign trade was a small part of overall economic activity in the U.S. and was concentrated in a few businesses like farming, it was a much larger factor in many other countries.

China would take a huge hit in trade and their foreign reserves, mostly U.S. dollars, would become worthless. They would still have the bulk of their trade with other Asian countries and Europe, but the biggest players in both Asia and Europe would all take huge hits when their trade surpluses from the U.S. evaporate.

It’s possible those markets would find workarounds and normalize minus America; or, with many EU nations already teetering on the edge of insolvency, they could go over the tipping point and collapse as well, ushering in a second, hopefully much shorter, dark age.

I’m not trying to overinflate the importance of America in international trade and finance, but if the rest of the world can’t adjust quickly, they could have the same fate.

Another factor to consider is oil – the U.S. is the largest per capita consumer of oil and our de facto exit from the market would, at first, wreak havoc on the many oil producers (almost none of whom have refineries), but then would mean less competition for that resource on the world market. If Europe and Asia make it past our collapse, they may find they will have relatively cheap oil for a couple more decades.

Russia falls between Asia and Europe and has vast supplies of fossil fuels so does not need to worry about that. Disruptions in world markets following the American collapse will affect Russia, but that country may retain some of the existential but built-in resilience from it’s communist days.

Canada and Mexico, both intimately tied tot he U.S. economy, likely would face the same fate. Neither help nor conquest would come from them.

U.S. international aid, while a relatively small part of the budget, is a lifeline for many third-world countries around the world – they likely will face at least a depression.

On the security front, the absence of the self-appointed world policeman leaves open the possibility for a lot of military action. In the Mideast, Iran, Egypt, and others may not feel constrained against Israel. Likewise, Israel will have no brakes on it’s ability to retaliate. For both Israel and Iran this could include nuclear weapons.

In Asia, China may feel it’s time to take Taiwan without the threat of the American 7th Fleet interfering, while North Korea could move to take South Korea (though the South would have a much better chance of taking the North). India and Pakistan may decide to settle old scores.

With so many financial and security issues at play, it is very difficult to predict what might actually happen. Would China invade the U.S. west coast? On one hand, they may have their hands full in Asia, assuming their economy survives. They may also face, initially, problems obtaining enough oil. China also lacks the ability to project power militarily, though they could press the then largely unused pacific merchant fleet into service for an invasion.

Europe could descent into chaos and anarchy, or they may pull through if lucky. Despite the depiction in Patriots, I don’t see a UN invasion in our future.

Worldwide chaos would also make regional and potentially world-wide nuclear war more possible and likely than ever before.

This has probably only muddied the waters – or maybe just cast the light on what’s already there. All we can do is prepare.

The Case for American Collapse

Last year a coworker and I had a conversation about the national debt and out of control congressional spending. He was skeptical when I suggested a second Great Depression could trigger a total collapse of the U.S. government, or the end of America as we know it. We didn’t have enough time to fully discuss the issue, and my distilled version – that increased complexity has made our civilization increasingly fragile – apparently wasn’t convincing enough. Probably a lot of survivalists or preppers have the same problem. Follow-on discussions over several months finally did convince him.

Objective
This is my attempt to explain the real possibility of a complete collapse of the U.S. caused by an event or events that disrupt systems to the point they cannot recover. The main focus is on how financial and resource issues could interact to do this, but other large-scale events – plague, massive natural disaster(s), terrorist attacks on infrastructure, and so on – could have the same effect.

For many it seems a real leap of logic to go from financial crisis to a total collapse and chaos. This is also an attempt to bridge that gap by providing some facts, context, and a narrative to explain how a perfect storm of problems is in America’s future.

Most people are aware of several of the issues that are in part setting the right conditions for a collapse since they are main stream news, but are not aware of a host of other issues or how they can interact with one another to greatly amplifying negative effects. Additionally most have not considered how the advances in technology over the past two decades that have made our lives easier, and our utter dependence on that technology, have made made us much more vulnerable.

This is not about a second Great Depression that simply lowers our standard of living, or an attack that destroys most of the U.S. or world (e.g. nuclear war, meteor), or destroys a critical part of the infrastructure in one fell swoop (e.g. EMP), that effectively results in a hard collapse.

Assumptions
Before getting into why a total collapse is possible, some assumptions that are widely accepted as factual.

• All empires end. Throughout history great powers have risen and fallen, so it is not unthinkable that the U.S. could also become a lesser power. This alone does not mean total collapse.
• The current U.S. national debt (84% of GNP as of 20 April 2010) and deficit spending are putting the value of the dollar at risk, and is placing the long-term financial health of the country into question. Current spending is unsustainable and will eventually force spending cuts, increased taxes, or both. Recent budgetary trimming by congress is a drop in the bucket.
• Demographics. America’s population is rapidly aging and Baby Boomers are beginning to retire, which will dramatically increase pressure on Social Security and public medical programs. This will also reduce the number taxpayers, further complicating budget issues.
• America’s infrastructure needs a major overhaul. Bridges, roads, rail, energy, dams, levees, drinking water systems, and more are in need of an estimated $2.2 trillion to be put in good condition.
• Competition for petroleum (e.g. China, India, and Europe) and the increased cost of extracting more difficult to reach fields will increase energy prices. Many of the world’s largest oil fields are in decline. The U.S. has the world’s largest deposits of coal, but our transportation is reliant upon oil (our cars don’t run on coal and our homes are not headed by coal), as the U.S. military recently noted. Oil is going to cost much, much more, there is no way around it.

These issues set the stage for the rest of the story.

Our Achilles Heels
There are four primary areas of concern (the fourth, not included in the quote below, is communications):

Most people’s very lives depend on a fragile triad made up of the transportation network, power grid and finance system. All three of these systems depend on the other two and they are all three unbelievably fragile.

Transportation. The U.S. is heavily reliant on relatively cheap imported oil from which we obtain; gasoline, diesel (and heating oil), and to a lesser extent (except the military), jet fuel. I won’t get into Peak Oil theory, in part because you can find just as many arguments for as against and in the end the bottom line remains we really don’t know. The important thing here is that while there may be much oil out there (or not), the easily obtained oil is gone, what is left if is increasingly difficult to extract, and it is therefore becoming more expensive. Without near-term technological breakthroughs in the area of energy soon (unlikely), demand for oil will increase as the population grows. Then there are China and India (from 2007):

In unusually urgent tones, the International Energy Agency warned that demand for oil imports by China and India will almost quadruple by 2030 and could create a supply “crunch” as soon as 2015 if oil producers do not step up production, energy efficiency fails to improve and demand from the two countries is not dampened.

In the U.S., most of us drive to work. The vast majority of what we buy is delivered by ships, and then by trucks, that use diesel fuel. Many homes in the northeast heat with heating oil (essentially diesel). Use any products made of plastic, nylon, petrochemicals, etc.? All made from petroleum. Our military needs massive amounts of fuel to project power and is very concerned about what the future holds.

Besides fuel there is infrastructure. Roads and bridges in many areas of the U.S. are in exceedingly poor shape, “Large swaths of our infrastructure… have aged to the point of gross deterioration.” It won’t be inexpensive to repair. Asphalt is part oil (tar) itself, and concrete is also energy intensive to produce.

To recap, it doesn’t matter that there will be lot of oil left in the Earth – it will be increasingly difficult and therefore expensive to extract, and there will be much more competition for what is extracted. Innovation may increase efficiency of vehicles or there may be alternate sources of energy discovered; but that’s highly unlikely given results from current lines of research, and unlikely to occur when needed, probably the next decade or two. This will be a shock to our economy, but could also spark oil wars – both could be triggers for collapse. On top of all that our transportation infrastructure demands attention.

Electricity. The thing that makes modern life modern; electricity. Our grid is overworked and largely tied to the internet, so aside from increasing demand and crumbling infrastructure, it is increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks.

Most power plants use coal to produce electricity. We have plenty of coal, but the system is dependent upon having the fuel and functioning infrastructure to get it there, the communications networks that control everything, and the financial network to pay for it all. As long as interruptions are short the system remains robust; if any one segment is delayed longer term, then other systems begin to fail.

Communications. In the past twenty to thirty years we have become much more dependent on communications technologies. Phone lines are now multiplexed and on fiber rather than a direct line to the old central office on the copper wires of the Ma Bell days (the line to your house likely is copper – to a nearby junction where it’s cut over to fiber and the network). If the power goes out for more than a few days, most phone lines won’t work.

Cell phones, GPS navigation, the internet have all created dependencies. Much of the public energy, communications, and finance sectors are controlled over the internet – if the net is down, service can be degraded or simply not be there. Most stores no longer maintain warehouses, but rely on just-in-time delivery, which saves money but increases vulnerability from disruptions in the other sectors.

Finance. How many of us get an actual paper paycheck these days? Or use cash for everything? Most financial transactions are dependent upon the internet and other dedicated communications networks to function. Besides requiring adequate communications, this of course requires electricity. Which requires reliable transportation and access to fuel.

Transportation, communications, electricity, and finance are all interdependent upon one another. The system is robust as long as interruptions in service are short.

Other Factors
Some may point to the Great Depression and note we got through that, we’ll get through tough times in the future. We made it through previous difficult recessions. They may note that the Wiemar Republic, Argentina, Zimbabwe, and the former Soviet Union made it through financial collapses and hard times.

Well the times have changed – the U.S. is not Argentina or the U.S.S.R. and our methods of recovering in the past is no longer viable, essentially via cheap oil and/or deficit spending (including through war). The systems outlined above require a steady supply of fuel, and each other.

The general population has lost basic survival knowledge and skills since the Great Depression. Right now there are well over 300 million people in the U.S. Less that one percent are involved in farming (about two percent live on farms) and there are only about two million farms. In 1935 there were about 6.8 million farms for a population of 127 million. Currently about 81 percent of Americans live in urban areas. Almost all Americans rely on just-in-time delivery for most of what they consume, and most aren’t even aware of that.

Right now we don’t need more farmers since we are so much more efficient than in decades past. But this efficiency is the result of massive amounts of fossil fuels, fertilizers, irrigation, and of course reliance on electricity, communications, and transpiration.

There are a lot of lesser known issues in play related to farming. I won’t go into detail on all of these but check out the world-wide phosphate shortage and ground water depletion in the U.S. Both these will affect U.S. food production.

The Perfect Storm
Let’s put it all together – the baseline assumptions, technological vulnerabilities, and the end of cheap oil, combined with how the West and America function, and what that may mean for our civilization.

As our debt becomes insurmountable, the tax base of workers shrinks, those on the Social Security roles swell, and cheap energy is gone, America’s finical might of the past will be gone. We will not be able to afford keeping our infrastructure in good condition. Europe will face similar problems, while China and India will fee the pain from fuel prices. Unless an unexpected source of energy is found soon, this seems certain. There may be wars over energy, food, and water resources. There have always been wars over these things, but not with so many nuclear powers (and in decline). Basically the slow collapse scenario.

Here is where the interdependent areas of transportation, communications, energy, and finance begin to drag each other down. Significant degradation in any one area will create shock waves that affect the others. They must all function for any of them to function. This was not so in decades past, at least not to the level it is now.

Conclusions
Any one issue above is not enough to kill our civilization. But we’re not facing one of those issues, we’re facing most. Even if several are not as severe as portrayed, we’re looking at at least a slow collapse scenario, which would probably eventually trigger a total collapse. Perhaps I’ve not described this well enough; if so consider there are many obstacle to not collapsing and few routes away from that outcome.

Some people have the notion that they can do something about this. And the right people probably can, especially if then can discover a new power source or invent ways to overcome existing problems, before it’s too late. But I go back to locus of control; what can I realistically do to effect whether or not TEOTWAWKI will occur, or how it will unfold? Since I am not a politician, a scientist, or famous (as a platform for activism) and don’t plan on becoming any of those things, there is not much I can do beyond preparing and helping others to do the same.

I don’t believe a total collapse with a large die-off is inevitable, just possible or maybe probable if drastic changes don’t occur soon. I think we will see drastic changes, just not soon enough.

Potential Gun Confiscation When Needed Most

A reader recently submitted a question about firearm confiscation during emergencies (the same question was posed to the author of Suburban Survival Blog and answered there a few days ago). Lightly edited:

[I]n regards to your plans for defense and firearms, in the event of an emergency (SHTF or something leading up to TEOTWAWKI) do you *really* believe that you will be allowed to keep your firearms if such an event happens? (emphasis mine)

Remember that after Katrina, New Orleans police confiscated all [legal] firearms and held on to them long after the immediate emergency was over. It wasn’t until the NRA sued and won did people finally get them back.

And if there is social unrest predicated on an severe economic down-turn (as many very credible pundits believe there will be in 2011), government at the local, state and/or Federal level will most likely try a firearms confiscation as they try to maintain order – just at the very time you may need them (even if you don’t leave for your farm). Can’t count on the NRA or the courts to support the 2nd Amendment in the event of such an emergency.

I’m presuming you have purchased them from legitimate sources (not asking, not judging) so they are licensed/registered/etc and easily tracked down.

And even if you don’t leave for your farm but are forced by circumstances to leave your home for ‘official’ shelter like in a school or armory (or stadium as in New Orleans), I doubt you can take your firearms in. After all, it would make a statement to walk into a school gym with a duffel in one hand and a rifle slung over your shoulder!

There are a lot of variables to consider; national vs. state level, changes in gun laws, the nature of the emergency, and so on.

Nationally. A couple years ago I read that there are an estimated 270 million privately owned firearms in the U.S, so almost as many are there are people living here. Under current laws it is unrealistic to think that a) the government knows where they all are; b) has the resources to research where they all are (FFL records) and; c) has the resources to go get them.

Congress responded to the unconstitutional gun confiscations during Katrina with the Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act of 2006 (H.R. 5013 [109th]), which was signed into law in October 2006. North Carolina banned guns during a bad storm earlier this year and is being sued for it.

States and Localities. The 2006 federal law has major loopholes that leave room for states to confiscate firearms in some circumstances. I’m not a lawyer so won’t attempt to parse all the ins-and-outs, it’s enough to know they can. During major social uprisings, natural disasters, marital law, etc., they could confiscate weapons.

However, a growing number of states are passing “emergency powers” legislation that prevents firearm confiscation during emergencies. Map via the NRA:

Surprise, surprise, my home state of Nebraska doesn’t have such a law, at least yet. Viewing that map also directly affects my bug out plans for driving home when and if things start to fall apart, assuming I haven’t moved much closer by then (which I’m trying to do).

Game Changers. A break down in civil order and high violent crime rates, brought on by a currency crisis and hyperinflation or other event, could cause changes in both national and state/local gun laws and ordinances. Or a string of high-profile mass murders with semi-auto weapons could be enough to turn the tide on gun control, as it did in Australia (remember the Brady Bill?).

Most readers here will recognize that restrictive gun laws leave law abiding citizens unarmed and the criminals with guns, but unfortunately enough lawmakers may not.

Such a change could prompt the federal government to create a national firearms registration system, or the states to require registration (most states do not currently). Once such records are complete, it would be much easier to confiscate firearms if that decision was made. It would still be manpower intensive and expensive, but the most difficult part would be done.

Bottom Line: Right now, with our current laws, I’m not worried about targeted or door-to-door confiscation if things start to fall apart. Might not be able to carry outside the home (even with a permit), but not outright confiscation. That could change but I would expect laws to change first. Even if the laws do change, most law enforcement will be too busy trying to hold back total chaos.

What I am most worried about are checkpoints or roadblocks in states, towns, etc. that would search vehicles and persons for firearms, and confiscate them. If they really want to find them, they usually do. That’s one reason I plan to avoid interstates, major highways, and other main roads if things are getting bad. If things are fairly normal but looking to get bad, might not have to worry about it – too many variables.

Recommendations. 1) Don’t live in states or cities that require firearms registration or permits to buy. Live someplace where you don’t have to go through an FFL to legally purchase firearms. I know, easier said than done, but if it’s worth it to you, move if you live in a restrictive place. Whatever you do, don’t break the laws where you live since that will give “them” the excuse needed, and you may not be able to legally buy again – just not worth it.

2) Get a concealed carry permit. While this puts you on the state police radar for having a pistol, exactly what and how many you have is still an unknown (if you follow #1 above). It may allow you to carry in troubled times when you otherwise could not.

3) If things go south and you need to bug out, (aside from going soon) have a plan for concealing your weapons. If you don’t have a concealed carry permit, lock them in the trunk (or tool box, etc.), but, as the reader said, don’t be walking around with a rifle on your shoulder. While legal in most places, it’s conspicuous and during marital law can only invite trouble.

Check out the NRA gun laws page, and the Wikipedia gun laws page for state gun laws.