Those Damn Government Workers

As the economy has declined over the past several years we’ve all become more aware of federal spending issues, and it has become fashionable to bash those lazy, can’t-be-fired, overpaid government employees. A study by the Heritage Foundation in 2010 and another by the Congressional Budget Office in 2012 both found that federal employees are paid more than those in the private sector.

Guess what: I’m a government civilian employee, a fed. Yes, one of the snakes out to crush the life out of you.

Don’t worry, I’m not a secret socialist, this is not to disagree with the fact that some feds as a whole are paid more, and you’ll never hear me calling for more government, just the opposite. The federal government is getting smaller now and much deeper cuts will come. This is to add some context that media summaries of the larger reports don’t stress enough.

I decided to work for the government because I wanted to be in a certain field where you pretty much must be either a fed, government contractor, or military, and I’ve been all of those things at one point or another. As a side note, before I was evil I was stupid. Back when I came into the federal workforce and the economy was good, many people felt those taking government jobs, or even going into the military with a commission, were idiots, a lot more could be made in the private sector. Times change.

This is longwinded but has a point. From a survivalist’s vantage, if you think collapse is immanent you may not care much what goes on with the government as long as it doesn’t affect you directly before that happens. Fair enough. I tend to see us as being in a slow collapse right now that could trigger a fast one unexpectedly and must eventually if nothing changes, but it could also drag on for many years or even decades. Though I think it unlikely, we as a country and civilization could somehow not collapse with enough dumb luck (our politicians sure aren’t going to fix what’s wrong).

If this slow collapse we’re in does take a long time to wind down to TEOTWAWKI, how and where we cut the government does actually matter. In part how we can defend ourselves, but also how the rest of the world deals with us – especially in trade – is due in no small part to our military power. The Department of Defense is 35% of the federal civilian workforce. Unfocused budged can easily hurting our national defense.

This could affect our access to energy, other imports, policies on exports, etc. that would in turn influence inflation/deflation, what goods we have, and of course jobs. Maintaining some global influence will be important as long as we’re in this slow collapse.

In the larger scheme of things, we could cut defense out of the budget entirely and in a few years mandated increases in Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, and interest on the national debt would eat up that savings – and we’d not have a defense/military.

I’m not saying that because I’m in defense and trying to save my job. Being on the inside I can say yes we need to cut a lot but we’d better be damned careful where we do cut. We do have a lot of deadwood. There are people that are not productive, there are departments or divisions or offices that are redundant or of no real use. On the other side of that, we need to cut carefully and there are some dedicated folks who give it 110%.

Some of this anti-fed sentiment seemed to have fueled part of the rationale for a government shutdown in late 2011. The shutdown is an examples of something that sounds like a good idea but isn’t, unintended consequences. Yeah, let’s stick it to those government employees; give them a taste of furlough!

The problem is that government shutdowns end up costing the government more, even if federal employees aren’t paid for the time they’re off. I’m not saying this because I’m a fed, I’m saying this because it is in reality a lose-lose situation and I don’t want my tax dollars pissed away any more than the next guy.

Getting back to those reports and the public opinions they help drive. The studies control for years of experience, location, etc. One problem with this is that many of those in defense actually have occupations are not in the civilian workforce, but are comprised of highly educated employees. Many have security clearances and other specialized skills that just don’t translate that well.

That is the case with where I work, there is no good private sector comparison. We all have at least a four-year degree (most have advanced degrees), clearances, perhaps another language, and specialized experience and training. Where I work even the janitors have security clearances and get higher pay for it.

In this time of slow collapse the government is finally starting to downsize. Right now it’s mostly through attrition. Eventually it will be through axing entire departments, if we get that far if and before a fast/total collapse.

What can any of us do about it? Besides voting for candidates that we think will cut the budget with some thought and research, not a whole lot. But this doesn’t mean you’re helpless, you can add this to your list of indications and warnings that help you gauge where we’re at. Understanding they “why” can help you determine the “what” to do about it best for you. Sometimes that’s all we can do.

The cuts are coming for all of government and tougher times for everyone, but how it happens will probably matter. If we’re going to go down anyway, I’d rather not have the U.S. end up being China’s or even Russia’s bitch before it does.

And next time the anti-fed bashing begins, remember it’s not as black and white as some say. There are sometimes unintended consequences. Some feds are on your side.

From Each According to His Ability, To Each According to His Need

Students are asked about redistributing grade point averages (GPA), from the upper 10% to those who may not graduate unless their GPAs are raised. A typical response, “that’s not fair, I worked hard for that.” Same students asked if they favor redistributing wealth, looks like all in the video did. Many tried to deflect this obvious hypocrisy by saying the analogy isn’t good, that it’s an apples to oranges comparison. But is it?

One argument, for example, was that grades are a more accurate measure of performance than income. I say; maybe, maybe not, and so what? Income is a combination of performance and life choices. Natural ability and luck are certainly factors, but probably less so than 1) not making stupid choices and 2) working hard. That’s just the way it is.

The Atlantic picked up on this and offered some of the reasons/excuses some argued, as examples and not the position of the author. I think they all fall flat and agree with the conclusion:

They suggest that most of us just want to redistribute income because, well, we wanna . . . not because we have any particularly good reason.

Class warfare is what we’re up against when it comes to creating a sane federal budget, and the sort of hypocritical and illogical approach by the students in the video above is one reason why I have little hope there will be a solution in time to prevent a collapse.

Mainstream Media on U.S. Financial Mess

Most survivalists/preppers have been keenly aware of the potential consequences for America’s uncontrolled spending spree over the past several decades, and that’s in fact a main reason to prepare for collapse for some of us. But mainstream media (MSM) didn’t often carry related stories or focus on the likely consequences, it was more the fringe media. MSM still largely stays away from alarmist stories, but as the debate in congress over deficit spending has picked up, so has coverage of the dire financial straits the U.S. is really in.

For example; US Going Same Route as Greece, Portugal: Economist from CNBC, U.S. Fiscal Meltdown in Spitting Distance: Laurence Kotlikoff from Bloomberg, and US lacks credibility on debt, says IMF from the Financial Times. Granted you’re not likely to see articles like 5 Things That Will Happen To You When America Goes Bankrupt from Townhall, but coverage is increasing awareness among the non-survivalist masses.

Why our civilization is fragile, Part 6

This post won’t follow the format of preceding posts on our civilization’s fragility in that it doesn’t present an academic work related to collapse. Instead it looks at how world events can begin overlap and affect multiple systems. Some events we’re all aware of:

• The overthrow of Egyptian dictator – and U.S. ally – Mubarak and the new government that will eventually take power calls into question the last few decades of peace between Arab nations and Israel. Any large-scale war in the Middle East is a very bad thing for the rest of the (oil consuming) world.
• The related Libyan uprising against the rule of Muammar Gaddafi has caused fuel prices in the U.S. and elsewhere to skyrocket, threatening the already fragile financial recovery. What’s surprising about this is the relatively small amount of oil Libya supplied (about 2%), especially for the U.S. market:
  

  [Libya] normally pumps around 1.6 million bpd, 85 percent of which is exported to Europe. Output is normally equivalent to about 2 percent of global consumption, and unrest has cut output to about 500,000 million bpd…

• The earthquake and tsunami in Japan have caused a generations crisis there that has endangered the financial solvency of Japan and sent shock waves into the global financial market:
  

  The global financial turmoil sparked by Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis — which has wiped out about $300 billion in U.S. stock values alone this week — is particularly troubling for the United States and several other countries, where an economic recovery has been showing signs of derailing because political unrest in Libya and the Middle East has led to a sharp run-up in crude oil prices.

• Though not in the news lately, the European debt crisis is still there looming around the corner, waiting to come back.

As political upheaval and natural disasters disrupt energy and other supply lines, the effects are felt throughout other systems and across the world. The nuclear plants probably melting down in Japan may slow plans for new nuclear power plants in the U.S. As nuclear power is the only energy source that has any realistic potential for replacing fossil fuels in the long-run, this only makes an American collapse more likely.

The world is getting closer to the edge. Additional natural disasters, political upheaval, or conflicts in critical locations could be enough to push civilization as we know it over the edge. I won’t say “the end is near” because the end is always near. Times like these we can get a glimpse of how close it is.

The Case for American Collapse

Last year a coworker and I had a conversation about the national debt and out of control congressional spending. He was skeptical when I suggested a second Great Depression could trigger a total collapse of the U.S. government, or the end of America as we know it. We didn’t have enough time to fully discuss the issue, and my distilled version – that increased complexity has made our civilization increasingly fragile – apparently wasn’t convincing enough. Probably a lot of survivalists or preppers have the same problem. Follow-on discussions over several months finally did convince him.

Objective
This is my attempt to explain the real possibility of a complete collapse of the U.S. caused by an event or events that disrupt systems to the point they cannot recover. The main focus is on how financial and resource issues could interact to do this, but other large-scale events – plague, massive natural disaster(s), terrorist attacks on infrastructure, and so on – could have the same effect.

For many it seems a real leap of logic to go from financial crisis to a total collapse and chaos. This is also an attempt to bridge that gap by providing some facts, context, and a narrative to explain how a perfect storm of problems is in America’s future.

Most people are aware of several of the issues that are in part setting the right conditions for a collapse since they are main stream news, but are not aware of a host of other issues or how they can interact with one another to greatly amplifying negative effects. Additionally most have not considered how the advances in technology over the past two decades that have made our lives easier, and our utter dependence on that technology, have made made us much more vulnerable.

This is not about a second Great Depression that simply lowers our standard of living, or an attack that destroys most of the U.S. or world (e.g. nuclear war, meteor), or destroys a critical part of the infrastructure in one fell swoop (e.g. EMP), that effectively results in a hard collapse.

Assumptions
Before getting into why a total collapse is possible, some assumptions that are widely accepted as factual.

• All empires end. Throughout history great powers have risen and fallen, so it is not unthinkable that the U.S. could also become a lesser power. This alone does not mean total collapse.
• The current U.S. national debt (84% of GNP as of 20 April 2010) and deficit spending are putting the value of the dollar at risk, and is placing the long-term financial health of the country into question. Current spending is unsustainable and will eventually force spending cuts, increased taxes, or both. Recent budgetary trimming by congress is a drop in the bucket.
• Demographics. America’s population is rapidly aging and Baby Boomers are beginning to retire, which will dramatically increase pressure on Social Security and public medical programs. This will also reduce the number taxpayers, further complicating budget issues.
• America’s infrastructure needs a major overhaul. Bridges, roads, rail, energy, dams, levees, drinking water systems, and more are in need of an estimated $2.2 trillion to be put in good condition.
• Competition for petroleum (e.g. China, India, and Europe) and the increased cost of extracting more difficult to reach fields will increase energy prices. Many of the world’s largest oil fields are in decline. The U.S. has the world’s largest deposits of coal, but our transportation is reliant upon oil (our cars don’t run on coal and our homes are not headed by coal), as the U.S. military recently noted. Oil is going to cost much, much more, there is no way around it.

These issues set the stage for the rest of the story.

Our Achilles Heels
There are four primary areas of concern (the fourth, not included in the quote below, is communications):

Most people’s very lives depend on a fragile triad made up of the transportation network, power grid and finance system. All three of these systems depend on the other two and they are all three unbelievably fragile.

Transportation. The U.S. is heavily reliant on relatively cheap imported oil from which we obtain; gasoline, diesel (and heating oil), and to a lesser extent (except the military), jet fuel. I won’t get into Peak Oil theory, in part because you can find just as many arguments for as against and in the end the bottom line remains we really don’t know. The important thing here is that while there may be much oil out there (or not), the easily obtained oil is gone, what is left if is increasingly difficult to extract, and it is therefore becoming more expensive. Without near-term technological breakthroughs in the area of energy soon (unlikely), demand for oil will increase as the population grows. Then there are China and India (from 2007):

In unusually urgent tones, the International Energy Agency warned that demand for oil imports by China and India will almost quadruple by 2030 and could create a supply “crunch” as soon as 2015 if oil producers do not step up production, energy efficiency fails to improve and demand from the two countries is not dampened.

In the U.S., most of us drive to work. The vast majority of what we buy is delivered by ships, and then by trucks, that use diesel fuel. Many homes in the northeast heat with heating oil (essentially diesel). Use any products made of plastic, nylon, petrochemicals, etc.? All made from petroleum. Our military needs massive amounts of fuel to project power and is very concerned about what the future holds.

Besides fuel there is infrastructure. Roads and bridges in many areas of the U.S. are in exceedingly poor shape, “Large swaths of our infrastructure… have aged to the point of gross deterioration.” It won’t be inexpensive to repair. Asphalt is part oil (tar) itself, and concrete is also energy intensive to produce.

To recap, it doesn’t matter that there will be lot of oil left in the Earth – it will be increasingly difficult and therefore expensive to extract, and there will be much more competition for what is extracted. Innovation may increase efficiency of vehicles or there may be alternate sources of energy discovered; but that’s highly unlikely given results from current lines of research, and unlikely to occur when needed, probably the next decade or two. This will be a shock to our economy, but could also spark oil wars – both could be triggers for collapse. On top of all that our transportation infrastructure demands attention.

Electricity. The thing that makes modern life modern; electricity. Our grid is overworked and largely tied to the internet, so aside from increasing demand and crumbling infrastructure, it is increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks.

Most power plants use coal to produce electricity. We have plenty of coal, but the system is dependent upon having the fuel and functioning infrastructure to get it there, the communications networks that control everything, and the financial network to pay for it all. As long as interruptions are short the system remains robust; if any one segment is delayed longer term, then other systems begin to fail.

Communications. In the past twenty to thirty years we have become much more dependent on communications technologies. Phone lines are now multiplexed and on fiber rather than a direct line to the old central office on the copper wires of the Ma Bell days (the line to your house likely is copper – to a nearby junction where it’s cut over to fiber and the network). If the power goes out for more than a few days, most phone lines won’t work.

Cell phones, GPS navigation, the internet have all created dependencies. Much of the public energy, communications, and finance sectors are controlled over the internet – if the net is down, service can be degraded or simply not be there. Most stores no longer maintain warehouses, but rely on just-in-time delivery, which saves money but increases vulnerability from disruptions in the other sectors.

Finance. How many of us get an actual paper paycheck these days? Or use cash for everything? Most financial transactions are dependent upon the internet and other dedicated communications networks to function. Besides requiring adequate communications, this of course requires electricity. Which requires reliable transportation and access to fuel.

Transportation, communications, electricity, and finance are all interdependent upon one another. The system is robust as long as interruptions in service are short.

Other Factors
Some may point to the Great Depression and note we got through that, we’ll get through tough times in the future. We made it through previous difficult recessions. They may note that the Wiemar Republic, Argentina, Zimbabwe, and the former Soviet Union made it through financial collapses and hard times.

Well the times have changed – the U.S. is not Argentina or the U.S.S.R. and our methods of recovering in the past is no longer viable, essentially via cheap oil and/or deficit spending (including through war). The systems outlined above require a steady supply of fuel, and each other.

The general population has lost basic survival knowledge and skills since the Great Depression. Right now there are well over 300 million people in the U.S. Less that one percent are involved in farming (about two percent live on farms) and there are only about two million farms. In 1935 there were about 6.8 million farms for a population of 127 million. Currently about 81 percent of Americans live in urban areas. Almost all Americans rely on just-in-time delivery for most of what they consume, and most aren’t even aware of that.

Right now we don’t need more farmers since we are so much more efficient than in decades past. But this efficiency is the result of massive amounts of fossil fuels, fertilizers, irrigation, and of course reliance on electricity, communications, and transpiration.

There are a lot of lesser known issues in play related to farming. I won’t go into detail on all of these but check out the world-wide phosphate shortage and ground water depletion in the U.S. Both these will affect U.S. food production.

The Perfect Storm
Let’s put it all together – the baseline assumptions, technological vulnerabilities, and the end of cheap oil, combined with how the West and America function, and what that may mean for our civilization.

As our debt becomes insurmountable, the tax base of workers shrinks, those on the Social Security roles swell, and cheap energy is gone, America’s finical might of the past will be gone. We will not be able to afford keeping our infrastructure in good condition. Europe will face similar problems, while China and India will fee the pain from fuel prices. Unless an unexpected source of energy is found soon, this seems certain. There may be wars over energy, food, and water resources. There have always been wars over these things, but not with so many nuclear powers (and in decline). Basically the slow collapse scenario.

Here is where the interdependent areas of transportation, communications, energy, and finance begin to drag each other down. Significant degradation in any one area will create shock waves that affect the others. They must all function for any of them to function. This was not so in decades past, at least not to the level it is now.

Conclusions
Any one issue above is not enough to kill our civilization. But we’re not facing one of those issues, we’re facing most. Even if several are not as severe as portrayed, we’re looking at at least a slow collapse scenario, which would probably eventually trigger a total collapse. Perhaps I’ve not described this well enough; if so consider there are many obstacle to not collapsing and few routes away from that outcome.

Some people have the notion that they can do something about this. And the right people probably can, especially if then can discover a new power source or invent ways to overcome existing problems, before it’s too late. But I go back to locus of control; what can I realistically do to effect whether or not TEOTWAWKI will occur, or how it will unfold? Since I am not a politician, a scientist, or famous (as a platform for activism) and don’t plan on becoming any of those things, there is not much I can do beyond preparing and helping others to do the same.

I don’t believe a total collapse with a large die-off is inevitable, just possible or maybe probable if drastic changes don’t occur soon. I think we will see drastic changes, just not soon enough.

Investing in Silver Coins

Previously I wrote that I don’t believe precious metals (PM) will be worth much after TEOTWAWKI, but that they can serve as a hedge against inflation prior to that. I also recommended that a good foundation in defensive equipment (i.e. firearms and ammunition) and having ample food storage should come first. That’s all still my opinion.

For those ready to invest in PM, I think U.S. silver coins are a good place to start, both because silver is less expensive than gold, and because American coins are more easily recognizable (considering my small audience is primarily U.S., of course).

Along those lines there are two primary choices; pre-1965 coins and American Silver Eagles. The Silver Eagles are 99.93% silver, while U.S. coins (dollars, half dollars, quarters, and dimes) minted prior to 1965 are 90% silver and 10% copper. The coins I suggest are termed “junk silver” since they have no value to collectors beyond the value of silver content. Each Silver Eagle contains an ounce of silver, while each $1 face value of junk silver contains about 0.7735 troy ounces of silver (usually rounded to 0.715 due to wear).

Shopping around you’ll find there are a lot of choices. Sometimes it’s also a good idea to buy “bulk” silver, usually a roll or bag of coins at a slight discount. I’ve found the Silver Coin Melt Value Calculation tool at Coinflation very useful.

The best deals I’ve found: Franklin half-dollars for $7.59 at collectons.com. That’s currently $0.65 above the price of silver for one, or $1.30 for a face value $1 worth, while most Morgan and Peace silver dollars go for about $4 above their current silver value of $14.83. I’ve recently purchased many Franklins from collectons.com, and the coins are mostly in very good condition – much better than the Walking Liberty halves graded the same.

I’ve done a lot of searching, and that remains the best deal for now. If you buy over $150 in a purchase, shipping is free, something to consider if you find a nice price on a coin but have to pay tax or shipping.

Precious Metals Post-TEOTWAWKI; I Don’t Buy It

A common theme in the survivalist community is that post-TEOTWAWKI gold, and especially silver, will quickly become prominent forms of currency. This notion is propagated by popular survivalists as well as a good portion of survival fiction. Usually the focus is on pre-1965 U.S. silver coins, which are 90% silver, with gold being reserved for really big purchases such as property or perhaps bribes (e.g., buying passage out of a dangerous area).

Some also call for stockpiling current U.S. nickels since the metal value is worth more than face value, and at least one survivalists blogger recommended stocking up on U.S. copper pennies (not the current mostly zinc circulation) to make change for silver coinage after TSHTF.

I’m not saying these metals will be useless, but I’ve come to the conclusion that their value post-TEOTWAWKI has been grossly overestimated, at least soon after full collapse. A few others agree with this line of thought.

While gold and silver have been valued as far back as we’ve recorded history and almost surely will retain value in the future, timing is everything. A few scenarios;

• Fast Collapse: Whatever the reason – EMP, super pandemic, etc. – after a fast collapse I don’t think either gold or silver will be worth much. People may still loot and hoard it, but I just don’t see most people wanting to sell a weapon or food for a gold coin or many silver ones. In such a situation food, security, weapons, ammunition, and other practical things will be worth far more. This scenario means a large die off in the U.S., perhaps 60-80% or more. A year after the crash, gold and silver jewelry (and coins) will be laying around empty homes for looters and scavengers to take; I’m not promoting the idea, just pointing out the obvious. There will be no logical reason to want nickel, and copper wiring and pipes in building the dead don’t use will make copper pennies worthless as well. In the aftermath of a fast collapse, precious metals are not needed.
• Slow Collapse: In my opinion, a collapse may start out slow in America but will eventually trigger a fast one – there will be no Kunstler-type slow collapse, it’s just not feasible. But that’s a topic for another post. At any rate, a slow collapse, unlike the fast one, probably would provide those with gold and silver the opportunity to cash in if they do so in time, and change those precious metals for many more goods, property, and so on that they might buy today. Gold and silver can act as a hedge against inflation. While the markets still exits it would also be a good time to cash in on any nickel or copper that’s been stockpiled. But once the breaking point is reached, a fast collapse is likely to begin and the value will be lost for some time.
• Recovery: Gold and silver have been world currencies for as long as trade has existed and this is where gold and silver will start to see their value again – when society and civilization begin to reform and barter commerce starts getting impractical. I don’t think this will happen quickly as some predict, it will need to wait for some sort of recovery, even if localized. The exception might be those who are well prepared now with vast stockpiles of barter goods, who barter for precious metals in expectation of the new market to eventually emerge (though I wonder how much of that trade would be in the jewelry of the dead). In a total, hard collapse (EMP, world financial collapse, etc.), I doubt recovery could occur before the excess population – the portion that cannot be fed – dies off, or at least a year.

Like anything else, I could be completely wrong. But I don’t think so – the logic behind a gold and silver market during TEOTWAWKI is just not sound. Before, if the timing is right and long after, but not during.

So, should you have any gold or silver? If you have excess income and all your other preps are in place, why not, it can’t hurt. Someone in that position could take advantage of the likely precious metals prices increases in the next few years and during a slow collapse (which are probably the same thing) to obtain an even more advantageous position for when the big collapse comes. Again, these metals can act as a hedge during inflation. If a fast collapse occurs, however, you won’t be able to cash in for many months, or perhaps more likely years, but again no big loss if all other preps are in place.

If you’re struggling to get squared away like most people, I would skip the precious metals, especially gold. If you feel you must, purchase a few silver dollars, quarters, and dimes, but don’t break the bank. A little may go a long way in a world where the vast majority have no silver coins. Secure more important items first, like a years worth of food, the survival weapons right for you, other items for your retreat, equipping your BoV, and so on.

Look at it like this; you can purchase a brick of U.S. manufactured bulk .22 LR ammunition (550 rounds) at Wal-Mart for about the same price as an American Silver Eagle dollar. If you purchased one of these items a month, after a year you’d have either 12 silver dollars, or 6,600 rounds of ammunition; what do you think will be worth more when our fragile civilization finally gives way?

Are Survivalists Merely Indulging in Escapism?

Sometimes it’s good to stop what you’re doing, step back, and do a reality check, at least I find that useful. When I have an issue or project to work through, I obsess on that task until it’s to a point where I’m satisfied.

A recent example is my bug out bag (BoB), which is critical to my backup survival plan. I spent literally hours a day for a few weeks researching and purchasing items for it, reorganizing it, etc., until it was just right. Probably could still use a few tweaks, but is now very functional.

The question here is, are those of us engaged in Survivalism, also known as preppers, just supplementing our mundane existence with the notion we’re doing something important, something that could save the our own life and our family?

Are we exaggerating the threat in order to justify this reality that most tend to be skeptical of our efforts, perhaps bringing up Y2K? What if Peak Oil is false and the Abiogenic petroleum origin theory (that oil is constantly being produced by inorganic means) is true? What if what appears to be financial meltdown for Western civilization is being dramatically overblown? Some may not even entertain these questions for fear of the answers.

Those that simply invest in AR-15 rifles, miscellaneous gadgetry, a 4×4 bug out vehicle (BoV), and a few boxes of MREs, but don’t invest time in learning skills, storing food, and preparing a retreat (if not already there) are in my estimation phony survivalists.

Admittedly some survivalists that have invested time into learning skills and stockpiling food still give the overall group a bad name (cultist militias, for example). In my initial searches on the topic of survivalism as escapism, I came upon some Neo-Nazi literature from the early 1980s! (here I should point out that that is absolutely not my flavor of survivalism – enough on that topic).

Let’s look at a definition of Survivalism:

Survivalism is a movement of individuals or groups (called survivalists) who are actively preparing for future possible disruptions in local, regional, national, or international social or political order. Survivalists often prepare for this anticipated disruption by having emergency medical training, stockpiling food and water, preparing for self-defense and self-sufficiency, and/or building structures that will help them to survive or “disappear” (e.g., a survival retreat or underground shelter). Anticipated disruptions include

1. Natural disaster clusters, and patterns of apocalyptic planetary crises or Earth changes, such as tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, blizzards, and severe thunderstorms.
2. A disaster brought about by the activities of mankind: chemical spills, release of radioactive materials, nuclear or conventional war, or an oppressive government.
3. General collapse of society, resulting from the unavailability of electricity, fuel, food, and water.
4. Monetary disruption or economic collapse, stemming from monetary manipulation, hyperinflation, deflation, and/or worldwide economic depression.
5. A sudden pandemic spreading through the global population.
6. Widespread chaos, or some other unexplained apocalyptic event.

Reviewing such a description of survivalism does help bring things into perspective; I don’t think it is foolish to prepare for these things, on the contrary, it would be foolish not to. Items 1 and 2 above are probably most likely, while items 4, 5, and 6 all point to the ultimate goals of survivalists – being ready for #3 above – the end of he world as we know it, or TEOTWAKWI. But how likely are items 3-6?

When I look at these issues, it comes back to why I am a survivalist. I’m not sure if I can be objective anymore, but I try to be. How likely are these thing to occur, and if they do how should I be prepared? Some things I just am not worried about, such as a Red Dawn style invasion of the U.S. Some things cannot be prepared for realistically, such as a plague of The Stand proportions.

In the end, re-examining all the reasons I’m prepping, I believe they’re still valid. U.S. and European economies are simply unsustainable. The U.S. in particular is driving full speed towards an cliff, with out of control spending and seemingly no real concern for what the possible effects could be.

My life may be relatively mundane, but I still believe preparing for natural disaster and societal collapse is warranted.

Perhaps the better question to ask would be are non-survivalists in denial?

The Day the Dollar Died Series – Unrealistic

The Day the Dollar Died series has ended with the 25th installment. It started off with an excellent description of what a fast economic collapse might look like, but unfortunately quickly degenerated into a New World Order (NWO) conspiracy fantasy. The military and service members were at every turn depicted as complete stooges for an Obama administration, setting up a Gestapo or East German type police state, bent on turning the U.S. into a NWO component. Even more unbelievable was the speed at which the government setup vast new organizations, rationing systems, etc. – mere days. The story simply does not pass the reality test. The series got a lot of attention, but in retrospect is not worth the time it took to read.

Economic Doom News – The U.S. Deficit

Update: The Keiser Report follows this theme. Also see that Soros has been downplaying gold – but buying large amounts of it.

Original Post: Three recent articles in mainstream press are highlighting the precarious nature of the U.S. economic situation and future. First from the Financial Times:

The US must fix its growing debt problems or risk a new financial crisis, Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, warned on Tuesday, adding a mounting deficit could spur inflation.
[...]
“Without pre-emptive action, the US risks its next crisis,” Mr Hoenig said in a speech at the Pew-Peterson Commission on Budget Reform. He was the only Fed member who dissented at last month’s meeting against language indicating that interest rates should remain near zero for an “extended period”.

From the AP:

For the U.S., the crushing weight of its debt threatens to overwhelm everything the federal government does, even in the short-term, best-case financial scenario — a full recovery and a return to prerecession employment levels.

The government already has made so many promises to so many expanding “mandatory” programs. Just keeping these commitments, without major changes in taxing and spending, will lead to deficits that cannot be sustained.
[...]
Carmen Reinhart, an economics professor at the University of Maryland and a former IMF official, suggested the nation’s fast-growing indebtedness may not have a visible impact at this point on ordinary Americans. But some day it will pounce.

“One thing we can say with a fair amount of certainty,” she said. “We never know when the wolf will be at our door. The wolf is very fickle and markets can turn very quickly. And a high debt level makes us very vulnerable to shifts in sentiment that we cannot predict.”

And from ABC:

[T]he problem of mounting national debt is worse than it ever has been before with — potentially dire consequences for taxpayers, according to a report by the nonpartisan Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform [read the report, PDF].
[...]
Over the past year alone, the amount the U.S. government owes its lenders has grown to more than half the country’s entire economic output, or gross domestic product.
[…]
“Within 12 years…the largest item in the federal budget will be interest payments on the national debt,” said former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker. “[They are] payments for which we get nothing.”

Economic forecasters say future generations of Americans could have a substantially lower standard of living than their predecessors’ for the first time in the country’s history if the debt is not brought under control.
[...]
Most Republicans don’t want to raise taxes; most Democrats don’t want to cut spending. The result is a stalemate on how to put America back in the black.

I have no hope congress will do anything rational on this in the near term, and believe the problem may not be correctable even with radical changes starting now due to looming demographics and energy challenges. A perfect storm is brewing that could see a total collapse of our fairly fragile system. That’s why I’m preparing now. Those that doubt will probably be sorry.