Why our civilization is fragile, Part 6

This post won’t follow the format of preceding posts on our civilization’s fragility in that it doesn’t present an academic work related to collapse. Instead it looks at how world events can begin overlap and affect multiple systems. Some events we’re all aware of:

• The overthrow of Egyptian dictator – and U.S. ally – Mubarak and the new government that will eventually take power calls into question the last few decades of peace between Arab nations and Israel. Any large-scale war in the Middle East is a very bad thing for the rest of the (oil consuming) world.
• The related Libyan uprising against the rule of Muammar Gaddafi has caused fuel prices in the U.S. and elsewhere to skyrocket, threatening the already fragile financial recovery. What’s surprising about this is the relatively small amount of oil Libya supplied (about 2%), especially for the U.S. market:
  

  [Libya] normally pumps around 1.6 million bpd, 85 percent of which is exported to Europe. Output is normally equivalent to about 2 percent of global consumption, and unrest has cut output to about 500,000 million bpd…

• The earthquake and tsunami in Japan have caused a generations crisis there that has endangered the financial solvency of Japan and sent shock waves into the global financial market:
  

  The global financial turmoil sparked by Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis — which has wiped out about $300 billion in U.S. stock values alone this week — is particularly troubling for the United States and several other countries, where an economic recovery has been showing signs of derailing because political unrest in Libya and the Middle East has led to a sharp run-up in crude oil prices.

• Though not in the news lately, the European debt crisis is still there looming around the corner, waiting to come back.

As political upheaval and natural disasters disrupt energy and other supply lines, the effects are felt throughout other systems and across the world. The nuclear plants probably melting down in Japan may slow plans for new nuclear power plants in the U.S. As nuclear power is the only energy source that has any realistic potential for replacing fossil fuels in the long-run, this only makes an American collapse more likely.

The world is getting closer to the edge. Additional natural disasters, political upheaval, or conflicts in critical locations could be enough to push civilization as we know it over the edge. I won’t say “the end is near” because the end is always near. Times like these we can get a glimpse of how close it is.

Time to Up-armor… The Gas Tank

With the price of oil again pushing prices at the pump close to $4 a gallon, I’m thinking of the last time gas prices were this high in 2008 and gas theft was way up.

Some thieves didn’t bother cars with locking gas caps, while others didn’t even look at the caps and just put a hole in the bottom of the tank to drain it.

Gas prices will fluctuate but over the long-term they can only go higher, meaning such thefts are almost guaranteed to continue and increase. We drive 4WD vehicles that sit high off the ground, relatively easier to access the gas tank when compared to the average car. My insurance deductible is $500 and I’m not sure I’d want my rates to go up by making a claim, so my plan is target hardening; locking gas cap and some sort of protection or the tank. Parking in a secure garage or with the gas tank side up against a wall are not options right now.

Standard skid plates are available for some trucks but probably not for many cars. Also, many skid plates are made for protecting the tank from damage from rough terrain rather than preventing someone with a screwdriver or icepick from making a small hole. Sensors to detect gas tank molestation are also being marketed, but they are expensive and unproven.

I’m no veteran metal worker but have jerry-rigged a few minor projects, mostly with success. My plan is to fashion some sort of sheet metal, maybe diamond plate, to protect the tanks. This won’t stop a determined gas thief, but will deter the lazy ones or those with less time. Hopefully.

Why go to all the trouble? My guess is that in a situation where we need to bug out, fuel will be extremely tight and theft will be rampant. Ensuring we keep the fuel and prevent damage that could ground us is vital. So I think these precautions will be called for. I’ve only been thinking about this for a couple days and need to take a few photos before I decide what to do. Related ideas and suggestions would be appreciated.

Why America Should NOT Be Driving on Natural Gas

A couple days ago I found the article, Why America Should Be Driving on Natural Gas via Survival Blog. The writing is on the wall for oil, and ethanol is currently a loser, so this caught my eye. Additionally, when I was a kid I worked summers for a farmer who ran one of his trucks on propane, and natural gas is a lot less expensive.

Sounds great:

Abundance is perhaps its most appealing advantage. The Potential Gas Committee (PGC) estimated that the U.S. had 1,836 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable natural gas as of 2008, out of a total future natural gas resource base of 2,074 Tcf, which would meet the nation’s natural gas demand for about 100 years, based on the current consumption rate…. [In 2009 the U.S. consumed] 22.8 Tcf of natural gas.

A couple times in the article the author touts that natural gas will last for “100 years.” I guess that should be long enough for a breakthrough to the next source of energy, for those that don’t think we’ll collapse long before then. But there is an important qualifier, it’s based on “current consumption.” Problem number one: clearly if we shifted transportation to natural gas, we’d use it up several times faster that it’s currently being used. So 100 years could be 25.

Then I looked at the numbers. Again, the author talks about “100 years” of fuel, at current consumption rates. But if we have 1,836 Tcf recoverable and use around 22.8 Tcf per year, that’s about 81 years of natural gas, not 100. That’s problem number two.

My guess is electricity (via nuclear reactors) will be the replacement fuel for gasoline, assuming we don’t collapse. Clearly natural gas can’t fulfill anything more than a short gap.

Buying a Generator

Last winter the DC area was hit by a few snow storms that left tens of thousands without power for several days. From what I heard on news radio (WTOP 103.5 in the metro area), recent thunder storms have resulted in more days of lost power than the snow storms. Apparently blackouts are a growing problem in the U.S., with even “non-disaster related outages affecting at least 50,000 consumers” up 124 percent in the past two decades.

Although last winter’s blackouts didn’t affect my household, I’ve decided to invest in a generator in case we face an extended loss of power. I don’t see this as primarily for a TEOTWAWKI type event (i.e. total collapse), but more for localized disasters for short relatively short periods of time – days up to a couple of weeks. Anything beyond a couple of weeks and my guess is it’s nearing time to bug out.

There are a lot of different options to be aware of when searching for generators and what you need will depend on where you are and how you plan to use the generator:

• Purpose: Will it be a smaller portable unit, or a whole home installed generator? For running appliances directly, or charging batteries that power your home through an inverter?
• Capacity (wattage): What items will you need to power (at the same time) in your home, RV, or other location? Are the appliances you’ll need to use gas or electric?
• Fuel: Primary choices are gasoline, diesel, propane, and natural gas. What do you already have? What can you easily obtain and store?

I’ve decided on a portable option that will be able to power some lighting (high efficiency bulbs), communications (internet/phone), the fridge in warm weather, and a few small appliances at one time. Because we rent, I will not install a switchover box to power the entire home, which would also connect a lot more items that would be needed, putting more of a load on the generator.

Adding up the wattage of the items I’d normally want to power at one time comes to 1,500 watts or less. Occasionally I may want to run some devices that pull up to 2,000-2,500 watts. From what I’ve read, generators do better with a lower load, and even fuel consumptions list running times based on half capacity. So I need something at least in the 3,000-4,000 watt range.

I did consider planning for bare bones eclectically service – a few lights, and small appliances only – in the 1,000 watt or less range, but rejected this. For not much more money a lot more capacity can be had, and you can do a small job with a larger generator, but you can’t do a big job with a small one.

For fuel my options are gasoline and propane; diesel generators tend to be cost prohibitive, and I don’t know if my next location will have natural gas available. However, there are a lot more options for gasoline generators and (currently) gasoline is easier to obtain. If I want to use propane or natural gas later, there are tri-fuel conversion kits available.

I haven’t purchased one yet, but it’s on the short list. Reviews at Amazon.com have convinced me that I don’t want the cheapest one of a certain wattage, just not worth the hassle of oil/fuel leaks and other malfunctions. I’ve mostly been looking at Amazon, but recently found this site that has a good selection with similar prices and mostly free shipping.

If you’re considering alternative power sources, see this site for information on generators, another for bike powered devices, and a howto for converting a lawnmower engine into a small generator.