Who Will Rescue America After Collapse?

Survival fiction often depicts other countries either coming to the aid of the U.S. after a collapse of some type, or coming to loot. Examples:

• One Second After (EMP scenario) – U.S. forces stationed abroad when the EMP occurred, with the help of European allies, begin helping U.S. east coast areas about a year after the event. Chinese forces take part of the U.S. west coast, Mexico takes some of the Southwest.
• Patriots (financial collapse) – The several European countries under UN auspices move in to pacify and take over America within a few years of collapse.

I’m not sure those scenarios are realistic but it’s extremely difficult to determine what would happen to the rest of world in the event of a complete U.S. collapse. There are both financial and security issues that make predictions fairly useless, in my opinion.

Financially, most of the world is tied to the U.S. through trade, aid, reserves, or all of the above. The image below is focused on U.S.-China trade but also depicts some of the global trade ties that would be disrupted should America collapse (click on image for full-size):

The breakdown of foreign trade is thought to have been a factor in the 1930s:

Many economists have argued that the sharp decline in international trade after 1930 helped to worsen the depression, especially for countries significantly dependent on foreign trade. Most historians and economists partly blame the American Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (enacted June 17, 1930) for worsening the depression by seriously reducing international trade and causing retaliatory tariffs in other countries. While foreign trade was a small part of overall economic activity in the U.S. and was concentrated in a few businesses like farming, it was a much larger factor in many other countries.

China would take a huge hit in trade and their foreign reserves, mostly U.S. dollars, would become worthless. They would still have the bulk of their trade with other Asian countries and Europe, but the biggest players in both Asia and Europe would all take huge hits when their trade surpluses from the U.S. evaporate.

It’s possible those markets would find workarounds and normalize minus America; or, with many EU nations already teetering on the edge of insolvency, they could go over the tipping point and collapse as well, ushering in a second, hopefully much shorter, dark age.

I’m not trying to overinflate the importance of America in international trade and finance, but if the rest of the world can’t adjust quickly, they could have the same fate.

Another factor to consider is oil – the U.S. is the largest per capita consumer of oil and our de facto exit from the market would, at first, wreak havoc on the many oil producers (almost none of whom have refineries), but then would mean less competition for that resource on the world market. If Europe and Asia make it past our collapse, they may find they will have relatively cheap oil for a couple more decades.

Russia falls between Asia and Europe and has vast supplies of fossil fuels so does not need to worry about that. Disruptions in world markets following the American collapse will affect Russia, but that country may retain some of the existential but built-in resilience from it’s communist days.

Canada and Mexico, both intimately tied tot he U.S. economy, likely would face the same fate. Neither help nor conquest would come from them.

U.S. international aid, while a relatively small part of the budget, is a lifeline for many third-world countries around the world – they likely will face at least a depression.

On the security front, the absence of the self-appointed world policeman leaves open the possibility for a lot of military action. In the Mideast, Iran, Egypt, and others may not feel constrained against Israel. Likewise, Israel will have no brakes on it’s ability to retaliate. For both Israel and Iran this could include nuclear weapons.

In Asia, China may feel it’s time to take Taiwan without the threat of the American 7th Fleet interfering, while North Korea could move to take South Korea (though the South would have a much better chance of taking the North). India and Pakistan may decide to settle old scores.

With so many financial and security issues at play, it is very difficult to predict what might actually happen. Would China invade the U.S. west coast? On one hand, they may have their hands full in Asia, assuming their economy survives. They may also face, initially, problems obtaining enough oil. China also lacks the ability to project power militarily, though they could press the then largely unused pacific merchant fleet into service for an invasion.

Europe could descent into chaos and anarchy, or they may pull through if lucky. Despite the depiction in Patriots, I don’t see a UN invasion in our future.

Worldwide chaos would also make regional and potentially world-wide nuclear war more possible and likely than ever before.

This has probably only muddied the waters – or maybe just cast the light on what’s already there. All we can do is prepare.

The Case for American Collapse

Last year a coworker and I had a conversation about the national debt and out of control congressional spending. He was skeptical when I suggested a second Great Depression could trigger a total collapse of the U.S. government, or the end of America as we know it. We didn’t have enough time to fully discuss the issue, and my distilled version – that increased complexity has made our civilization increasingly fragile – apparently wasn’t convincing enough. Probably a lot of survivalists or preppers have the same problem. Follow-on discussions over several months finally did convince him.

Objective
This is my attempt to explain the real possibility of a complete collapse of the U.S. caused by an event or events that disrupt systems to the point they cannot recover. The main focus is on how financial and resource issues could interact to do this, but other large-scale events – plague, massive natural disaster(s), terrorist attacks on infrastructure, and so on – could have the same effect.

For many it seems a real leap of logic to go from financial crisis to a total collapse and chaos. This is also an attempt to bridge that gap by providing some facts, context, and a narrative to explain how a perfect storm of problems is in America’s future.

Most people are aware of several of the issues that are in part setting the right conditions for a collapse since they are main stream news, but are not aware of a host of other issues or how they can interact with one another to greatly amplifying negative effects. Additionally most have not considered how the advances in technology over the past two decades that have made our lives easier, and our utter dependence on that technology, have made made us much more vulnerable.

This is not about a second Great Depression that simply lowers our standard of living, or an attack that destroys most of the U.S. or world (e.g. nuclear war, meteor), or destroys a critical part of the infrastructure in one fell swoop (e.g. EMP), that effectively results in a hard collapse.

Assumptions
Before getting into why a total collapse is possible, some assumptions that are widely accepted as factual.

• All empires end. Throughout history great powers have risen and fallen, so it is not unthinkable that the U.S. could also become a lesser power. This alone does not mean total collapse.
• The current U.S. national debt (84% of GNP as of 20 April 2010) and deficit spending are putting the value of the dollar at risk, and is placing the long-term financial health of the country into question. Current spending is unsustainable and will eventually force spending cuts, increased taxes, or both. Recent budgetary trimming by congress is a drop in the bucket.
• Demographics. America’s population is rapidly aging and Baby Boomers are beginning to retire, which will dramatically increase pressure on Social Security and public medical programs. This will also reduce the number taxpayers, further complicating budget issues.
• America’s infrastructure needs a major overhaul. Bridges, roads, rail, energy, dams, levees, drinking water systems, and more are in need of an estimated $2.2 trillion to be put in good condition.
• Competition for petroleum (e.g. China, India, and Europe) and the increased cost of extracting more difficult to reach fields will increase energy prices. Many of the world’s largest oil fields are in decline. The U.S. has the world’s largest deposits of coal, but our transportation is reliant upon oil (our cars don’t run on coal and our homes are not headed by coal), as the U.S. military recently noted. Oil is going to cost much, much more, there is no way around it.

These issues set the stage for the rest of the story.

Our Achilles Heels
There are four primary areas of concern (the fourth, not included in the quote below, is communications):

Most people’s very lives depend on a fragile triad made up of the transportation network, power grid and finance system. All three of these systems depend on the other two and they are all three unbelievably fragile.

Transportation. The U.S. is heavily reliant on relatively cheap imported oil from which we obtain; gasoline, diesel (and heating oil), and to a lesser extent (except the military), jet fuel. I won’t get into Peak Oil theory, in part because you can find just as many arguments for as against and in the end the bottom line remains we really don’t know. The important thing here is that while there may be much oil out there (or not), the easily obtained oil is gone, what is left if is increasingly difficult to extract, and it is therefore becoming more expensive. Without near-term technological breakthroughs in the area of energy soon (unlikely), demand for oil will increase as the population grows. Then there are China and India (from 2007):

In unusually urgent tones, the International Energy Agency warned that demand for oil imports by China and India will almost quadruple by 2030 and could create a supply “crunch” as soon as 2015 if oil producers do not step up production, energy efficiency fails to improve and demand from the two countries is not dampened.

In the U.S., most of us drive to work. The vast majority of what we buy is delivered by ships, and then by trucks, that use diesel fuel. Many homes in the northeast heat with heating oil (essentially diesel). Use any products made of plastic, nylon, petrochemicals, etc.? All made from petroleum. Our military needs massive amounts of fuel to project power and is very concerned about what the future holds.

Besides fuel there is infrastructure. Roads and bridges in many areas of the U.S. are in exceedingly poor shape, “Large swaths of our infrastructure… have aged to the point of gross deterioration.” It won’t be inexpensive to repair. Asphalt is part oil (tar) itself, and concrete is also energy intensive to produce.

To recap, it doesn’t matter that there will be lot of oil left in the Earth – it will be increasingly difficult and therefore expensive to extract, and there will be much more competition for what is extracted. Innovation may increase efficiency of vehicles or there may be alternate sources of energy discovered; but that’s highly unlikely given results from current lines of research, and unlikely to occur when needed, probably the next decade or two. This will be a shock to our economy, but could also spark oil wars – both could be triggers for collapse. On top of all that our transportation infrastructure demands attention.

Electricity. The thing that makes modern life modern; electricity. Our grid is overworked and largely tied to the internet, so aside from increasing demand and crumbling infrastructure, it is increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks.

Most power plants use coal to produce electricity. We have plenty of coal, but the system is dependent upon having the fuel and functioning infrastructure to get it there, the communications networks that control everything, and the financial network to pay for it all. As long as interruptions are short the system remains robust; if any one segment is delayed longer term, then other systems begin to fail.

Communications. In the past twenty to thirty years we have become much more dependent on communications technologies. Phone lines are now multiplexed and on fiber rather than a direct line to the old central office on the copper wires of the Ma Bell days (the line to your house likely is copper – to a nearby junction where it’s cut over to fiber and the network). If the power goes out for more than a few days, most phone lines won’t work.

Cell phones, GPS navigation, the internet have all created dependencies. Much of the public energy, communications, and finance sectors are controlled over the internet – if the net is down, service can be degraded or simply not be there. Most stores no longer maintain warehouses, but rely on just-in-time delivery, which saves money but increases vulnerability from disruptions in the other sectors.

Finance. How many of us get an actual paper paycheck these days? Or use cash for everything? Most financial transactions are dependent upon the internet and other dedicated communications networks to function. Besides requiring adequate communications, this of course requires electricity. Which requires reliable transportation and access to fuel.

Transportation, communications, electricity, and finance are all interdependent upon one another. The system is robust as long as interruptions in service are short.

Other Factors
Some may point to the Great Depression and note we got through that, we’ll get through tough times in the future. We made it through previous difficult recessions. They may note that the Wiemar Republic, Argentina, Zimbabwe, and the former Soviet Union made it through financial collapses and hard times.

Well the times have changed – the U.S. is not Argentina or the U.S.S.R. and our methods of recovering in the past is no longer viable, essentially via cheap oil and/or deficit spending (including through war). The systems outlined above require a steady supply of fuel, and each other.

The general population has lost basic survival knowledge and skills since the Great Depression. Right now there are well over 300 million people in the U.S. Less that one percent are involved in farming (about two percent live on farms) and there are only about two million farms. In 1935 there were about 6.8 million farms for a population of 127 million. Currently about 81 percent of Americans live in urban areas. Almost all Americans rely on just-in-time delivery for most of what they consume, and most aren’t even aware of that.

Right now we don’t need more farmers since we are so much more efficient than in decades past. But this efficiency is the result of massive amounts of fossil fuels, fertilizers, irrigation, and of course reliance on electricity, communications, and transpiration.

There are a lot of lesser known issues in play related to farming. I won’t go into detail on all of these but check out the world-wide phosphate shortage and ground water depletion in the U.S. Both these will affect U.S. food production.

The Perfect Storm
Let’s put it all together – the baseline assumptions, technological vulnerabilities, and the end of cheap oil, combined with how the West and America function, and what that may mean for our civilization.

As our debt becomes insurmountable, the tax base of workers shrinks, those on the Social Security roles swell, and cheap energy is gone, America’s finical might of the past will be gone. We will not be able to afford keeping our infrastructure in good condition. Europe will face similar problems, while China and India will fee the pain from fuel prices. Unless an unexpected source of energy is found soon, this seems certain. There may be wars over energy, food, and water resources. There have always been wars over these things, but not with so many nuclear powers (and in decline). Basically the slow collapse scenario.

Here is where the interdependent areas of transportation, communications, energy, and finance begin to drag each other down. Significant degradation in any one area will create shock waves that affect the others. They must all function for any of them to function. This was not so in decades past, at least not to the level it is now.

Conclusions
Any one issue above is not enough to kill our civilization. But we’re not facing one of those issues, we’re facing most. Even if several are not as severe as portrayed, we’re looking at at least a slow collapse scenario, which would probably eventually trigger a total collapse. Perhaps I’ve not described this well enough; if so consider there are many obstacle to not collapsing and few routes away from that outcome.

Some people have the notion that they can do something about this. And the right people probably can, especially if then can discover a new power source or invent ways to overcome existing problems, before it’s too late. But I go back to locus of control; what can I realistically do to effect whether or not TEOTWAWKI will occur, or how it will unfold? Since I am not a politician, a scientist, or famous (as a platform for activism) and don’t plan on becoming any of those things, there is not much I can do beyond preparing and helping others to do the same.

I don’t believe a total collapse with a large die-off is inevitable, just possible or maybe probable if drastic changes don’t occur soon. I think we will see drastic changes, just not soon enough.

Post Collapse: Community vs. Communism

If Jim Rawles allowed comments at his popular Survival Blog, the post, Community Crisis Planning for Societal Collapse, by J.I.R., would probably be over 1,000 by now.

J.I.R. starts out with a no nonsense look at how communities will function should an American collapse occur past the short-term. The need to establish rule of law, stockpile resources, and ensure critical functions are completed.

But the talk of confiscating resources hit a lot of raw nerves and rightly so. I’ll hit a few representative high points – the things that really get under my skin – and try to keep it in context;

If you let private citizens keep their food and fuel and other scarce resources and only confiscate and control corporate or “large retail or wholesale stocks” …

“If you let” citizens keep their property? Next is the delineation between private citizens resources and store owners things, though the “initially” is troubling:

You have to be careful which resources you initially confiscate and only gather large retail or wholesale stocks meant for re-sale. Anything owned by an individual for his own use is his property and must not be touched. Any critical and scarce commodity owned strictly for resale should be confiscated for the common good and held by the community. Make sure you provide a receipt to any owners you can locate or at least keep records of what is taken.

Needing to establish some sort of community stockpile is of course what would be needed long-term, but “ownership” still does exist and there is no point to pretending otherwise:

One of these choices might be to confiscate corporate property and redistribute it as needed for the common good. That specifically includes local merchants who hold stockpiles of needed resources meant for resale, such as gas station and grocery store owners. The whole retail system with [its] complex accounting and “ownership” laws are part of a finance system that no longer exists after a severe EMP event.

This next bit is actually bullshit – my brothers and I own land where we grew up and where we’d (try to) return to in the event of a collapse. We don’t live there, some of it is farmable, so we’re absentee landlords. It is not an “investment” in the finance sense, and anyone trying to take it, or those that did, would be on the receiving end of our hot lead:

Farmable land owned by a absentee landlord is easy; he’s not there and owns it only as an investment, therefore it now belongs to the community.

For this, all I have to say is, and “try it”:

You may also be forced to confiscate privately owned vehicles if yours are damaged or you need specialty vehicles (like fuel tankers, for instance). You need to work out a method of doing this without stealing. Any time you confiscate resources from any private citizen, you need to somehow reimburse them as fairly as possible. A better approach may be to exclusively hire them as the driver and let them retain ownership.

This next bit is fairly cheeky – confiscate these farmers’ property, but hire them to help with the process:

Co-ops and large commercial farms: These may have livestock and large amounts of feed grain and other dried foods on hand. … Seek them out and get their input and help to secure their food. You want to avoid spoilage and loss as much as possible and these people can help. Hire them.

J.I.R. has the right initial notion that communities will need to stockpile food/supplies, provide for rule of law and collective defense, but I think he sets precedents that prime the slippery slope of communism.

Readers of Survival Blog have responded and several letters have been published, and the author of the original article has responded a couple of times;

• Four Letters Re: Community Crisis Planning for Societal Collapse
• Six Letters Re: Community Crisis Planning for Societal Collapse
• Seven Letters Re: Community Crisis Planning for Societal Collapse

Not all disagree with J.I.R. (from the Six Letters);

I completely agree with J.I.R.: Long term, communities (a dirty word to radical individualists) must organize and work together. And so all of a sudden on a survivalist web site like yours, someone has gotten real and is talking about community, the dangers of anarchy, the rule of law, justice, the protection of the weak, and even redistribution of property. In other words, government, the very thing most survivalists demonize the most. This is unavoidable. No guns-based, hyper-individualistic strategy could ever work for long.

That’s why I’m a left-wing survivalist. To me, the key is cooperation and production. Though the old self-reliant American lifestyle was fading when I was a child in the 1950s, the infrastructure and social fabric that supported community-based self-reliance had not yet decayed.

Several replies mentioned the scenario from the excellent book, One Second After and that it was similar. Actually, it was different in the book in that a lot less was confiscated and things were more voluntary. There was a rationing system – you give your stockpile and you get a ration card, otherwise live on what you have. That’s better. But it was also a relatively small community.

Our “retreat” (the family farm, or perhaps “compound”) has enough land and water to grow substance crops for as many as we’ll allow on our property. There is also some game, but my guess is that if there is a real collapse, game will become thin pretty soon.

We plan on having enough for our family and close friends we plan on having here. Probably some won’t make it there (including me and my family), probably some we’d rather not have there will show up. Probably more than planned for, which is sort of figured into planning; it’ll be very hard.

My family, I’m sure, would not allow any land, vehicle, fuel, livestock, or other property to be confiscated. We’d be well armed, including scoped long-range rifles, and with a plan to defend. As J.I.R. notes (Six Letters);

Without some kind of redistribution of scarce resources and a working police department, nobody’s property is off limits. Most of the people in the community are going to be hungry very fast. Nobody just sits down and starves to death. They are going to attempt to find food or whatever their family needs. Hungry people loot.

That’s true. However, for most places, that will happen regardless. There will be too many people, not enough food. Period. And there is no way to help everyone, it just cannot be done (unless you have stored truly vast quantities of supplies, which is highly unlikely for most) without jeopardizing the lives of your own family or group.