I believe the Western world is today more vulnerable to both natural and man-made catastrophes than at any time in our past due to our dependence on a complicated system of systems. My goal is to present a strategic view of why our civilization is so vulnerable, along with a tactical view of how to prepare for it.
There are several big picture factors to consider that work together in a dangerous way:
Economics: The U.S. national debt is a long-term threat to the nations economy and current levels of government spending are unsustainable. Most of European is no better and many nations in the European Union are in far worse shape. Still, governments spend, though it is unlikely future generations will be able to pay these debts. In short, our nation is in danger of bankrupting itself. Compounding this issue are our dwindling manufacturing and tax bases, aging infrastructure, declining educational system, and absolute dependence on foreign oil. In the U.S. and abroad, legislatures seems determined to spend us into oblivion in the name of saving us.
Resources: Whether Peak Oil theory is correct or not, fossil fuels are becoming more difficult to extract and will become more expensive over time. The U.S. cannot be energy independent given current oil and gas reserves, or at least cannot maintain current living conditions. China and India are growing and so are their energy needs. Green energy sources cannot fill the void. Unfortunately, modern civilization is based on access to cheap fossil fuels, and world governments seem to be oblivious to the need to prepare (e.g., start building hundred of nuclear reactors now) for the future.
Demographics: The U.S., Europe, and some Asian (China and Japan) societies are rapidly aging, meaning there will be less workers, less paying taxes, and more retirees using those lesser resources, at the very time the opposite will be needed. This issue compounds the economic problem above.
International Threats: U.S. status as a super power will be challenged in the future as China and perhaps Russia gain power. Those nations and others, however, will also face demographic and resource issues that will make them competitors for trade and scarce recourse, increasing the potential for conflict. Non-state actors such as Al Qaeda will continue to be a challenge as well as a budgetary drain. All countries remain vulnerable to the threat of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack.
Wild Cards: This includes natural disasters, plagues and pandemics, earthquakes, asteroids, etc. – all those things completely beyond the control of humans that could wreak havoc upon civilization by destroying key infrastructure (dams, power grid, etc.).
Society has faced many of these issues in the past, the difference being that contemporary Western civilization has become dependent upon technology to a degree unsurpassed in history – a gross over reliance that is our Achilles heel. While there is a level of redundancy that provides some robustness, there is point when failures in one systems cause something like shock waves that will cause failures in related systems. We have lost many of the vital non-technical skills our grandparents generation had.
As our society becomes more dependent on increasingly complex technologies, the potential effect of large scale catastrophes is magnified by the probability of cascade failures in those technologies.
As Robert Heinlein said in his essay, How to be a Survivor, “it’s worth planning for.”
Survive what? This is the challenge question of the century that has us all perplexed at the moment. It takes a lot of discipline to slow down and create a plan that will work for you. I see tons of videos and blogs on this topic which leads me to believe its on everyone’s mind these days. But what are you surviving from and for how long? How do you know what your carrying in your BoB will keep you alive in the worst times imaginable? To go from eating 3 meals a day to eating once every 3 days will be difficult for most people. If you have never lived on the street or ate out of garbage cans I challenge you to try it for a few days. If you have never parked your car and walked into a thick forest for a week, try it. If you plan on staying home, shut off the power, water and cellular phone and see how you do with what you have. If you cannot do these things then do what you can do so you’ll have a better understanding of how you will react if something does happen. Remember, you’ll be surrounded by many people walking around with their own BoB’s and if not they will be looking for one to make their own. Have you been to the range lately? Have you taken a defensive firearms course so you’ll know how to respond? You can’t shoot everyone and possibly you may not have the strength to shoot anyone. Test, test, test and then refine and test again. What would you do if all you had left was of your BoB was the items you managed to shove in your underwear before you were ambushed, what would those items be and why?
Outstanding point! Always, beware of “Wildcard Willie”!
Thank-you for all the good information!!!
Love the newer page banner! Serious!
Excellent points! I basically cover the same themes at my website. Demographics is a long-term issue in particular, that doesn’t get alot of attention, along with infertility rates, which are slowly increasing each year in the industrialized nations (can anyone say “Children of Men”?).
After my own independant research of Peak oil (shortly after 9/11), along with other areas of resource depletion, then the subject of failed/collapsed civilizations, as an academic (not to metion my experience within the clueless military-intelligence complex).
After having seen where the charts and numbers lead to, I’ve gone full-circle, from academic, to “specialist in violence” (Tainter) Sarah Conner mode, drawing on all my military experience, as well as developing newer skills over the years in growing and preserving food, etc.
Bunker Mentality, Demographics and political opinion aside, No one seems to trust anyone. NO one seems to really believe what anyone writes. When I was young I was a voracious reader and actually believed what people wrote, whoever they were because the theory was they could not print it if it was untrue. Now with blogs and rants and U Tube and Face Book, Twitter, everyone is a journalist or a commentator. I believe that Walter Cronkite was the greatest man on the planet and did not realize until his retirement that he was a “flaming liberal”. It did not matter to me because I believed him. Now I believe no one. Glenn Beck,Arriana Huffington,Rush Limbaugh and others of both sides tell me what they want me to believe. Eveyone has an agenda. NOne of us would have survived the founding of this nation as we are too selfish, self centered and materialistic. No insult intended because I am one of them. Could any of us put our country and others before ourselves? WE do not trust the people we think we would be saving so why would we risk our lives to save people who we don’t believe, don’t trust or at best think are idiots. I plan for the worst, hope for the best and keep my plans to myself and my immediate family and some of them are dubious as to their beliefs and thoughts. But I love them and accept even their faults and frailties. That is what makes us human. NO one, no one knows everything and no one can tell you what is best for you. Read everything and be skeptical, be open to different opinions, be receptive to new ideas. Trust no one but be educated. My son is a stock broker and is worried about what I think are all the wrong things but at least he is thinking. My daughter is in real estate and has a different view altogether, but at least they both think, listen and form their own opinions. If we plan for a realistic existence and live a lifestyle of non excess but of caring, sharing and concern for our families and our fellow man, I believe that in the end that will be all we can do. Plan for the worst, hope for the best and learn everything you can and be prepared to change, quickly.
Semper Fi
Big cheez has valid points, ” however”, as one of those sometimes “love everyone” lefty lib types, I also believ that we should ALL prepare for self preservation. I live in Los angeles, and many here may have that “peoples republik of .. yada,yada” view of my state. We tend to protray that open lifestyle, but in reality, many folks here are paranoid, and avoid their neighbors, or strangers- out of plain old FEAR and selfishness.
With this view in mind, you need to at least TRY and prepare. I have a min of 500 rds of .223/5.56 ammo for my older mini 14 rifle, ahve a number of pistols/revolvers with smaller amounts of ammo(100-200 rds each), a shotgun, and a CA. legal AK variant with equal amount of ammoas my mini 14. Niether of the rifles I have are uber accurate, but they are good home defense weapons with enough “reach” to keep unwanted person at bay, or protect defend my friends, neighbors and family.
I also have a decent amount of canned good,a min. 30 day supply of water, extra bleach( vcomes in handy to disinfect thigns) and several first aid kitrs and handbooks.I keep plenty of matches and kighters available too. Why? Because it may come a time when the gov’t( local or National) can’t help you- it may be temporary, it may be permenant.We just don’t know.I don’t envision doom and gloom, but I saw what happens here in CA>( seen the 1992 riots, major earthwuakes, and floods/ fire storms) and I know having some sort of PLAN is bettetr than nothing. sure ,your house could burn in a fire- sotres and suppplies gone, but at least you had a PLAN.
I found this site a few yrs ago and put together a BoB for my car- enough to carry in a backpack without stressing( 4 day water supply,flashlight,matches, a small bottle of bleach, first aid kit, undies, sweats- a must have for utility and warmth, and small sleeping bag- last month I threw in a some MRE’s and $50 in losse cash) i keep some hi tech boots in the trunk too,as well as a airfocre survival knife I bought at a surplus store.
If you get stuck in a bad situation, the BoB is a “comfort” item- it helps calm you down and re-assure you,even IF you don’t need it.If like minded people did the same, you’d see people who could handle a crisis, and there’d be less chance of overall panic. simple things go along way toward maintaining order.People who feel they have something to fall back on ,remain a bit calmer than those who don’t- and those who are calm, begin to think rationally, first about their selves, then in group, about the GROUP, then about the community. In a time of crisis, those who can pull it together positively, can restore things.
Bgcheez- a BoB to me is just that, a calming factor. You’d be surprised at what, even our self indulged society, can put up with ,if we have a bottom line.People can rough it on a cold dirt ground, if they know sooner or later ,it “will get better”. People can live off a scant amount of food for a few days, if they know they can keep some sort of positive mindset, and they have like minded folks around .while I don’t envsion the “Bloody fall of the U.S.A”,
I can see a terrible Katrina style disaster happening here in
So.Calif, and the weeks of misery and lawlessness thatwill follow. My Bob, home supplies for 30 days et al will keep me positive, and away from the desperateness some people will succumb to…
Mike,
Glad to hear of a well-prepper liberal! In LA? My advice is to move (I live near DC and am trying to relocate, have been for awhile and know it’s not easy).
Since you have an older Mini-14, I suggest an Acu-Strut or something similar to increase accuracy. These days there is also a lot of cheaper (~$4/box) .556mm ammo from Russia that makes it easier to build up a larger supply, or easier to afford going to the range.
IMO, a BoB is an absolute necessity – you never know when you’ll need it. Sounds like you’re relatively well stocked at squared away, except politics!
Prepare to REPAIR! Look at how the people of Japan handled a disaster most here have never even contemplated. They immediately went to work HELPING neighbors and strangers. They stayed together as a COMMUNITY. Why are American’s so fucking selfish that the first thing that comes to mind is killing every living thing with in sight at the first hint of trouble?? Moronic.
Prepare, yes. Do as you feel is right for you and yours, but I would urge all to live the way you do every non catastrophic day of your life…with compassion to others and a thought of rebuilding that society you enjoy this very moment.
Do you actually WANT to live like dogs in a post apocalyptic hell that for pure selfishness you fostered? Survive the disaster then WORK toward never letting it happen again. Better yet, spend the time energy and money you do on prepping, towards preventing the apocalypse in the first place.
You have more power than you think.
Excellent information. The many factors at play certainly complicate the understanding of the onset of a survivalist scenario. Considering all of them together, the likelihood of a survivalist scenario seems quite high.
I think the most important way to prepare yourself is to get ‘off the grid.’ Being dependent upon the various energy sources (oil, electricity companies) that are crippling our society is dangerous for anyone who wants to be fully prepared. In order to get off the grid, you need to be able to produce and store your own energy. The most common and easy ways to produce your own energy are via wind and solar energy.
The best way to store this energy is via a high-capacity battery system. I would recommend Nickel Iron batteries, as they last 30+ years. The only place i’ve been able to find them is at http://ironedison.com.